Winter Moves: Grading the San Diego Padres

By Bobby DeMuro
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Updated: February 6, 2015

A.J. Preller. [Image via @10NewsCoronel]

Hired just six months ago, new general manager A.J. Preller has made the San Diego Padres an instant contender in the National League West. Preller’s top concern this offseason, and rightfully so, was offense. As a team, the San Diego Padres finished last in the league in batting average (a historically low .226 clip), home runs, runs, RBIs, hits, and pretty much every other meaningful offensive statistic. With two robust offenses in the division (Colorado, Los Angeles), the Padres needed a shot in the arm. They got it, and Preller deserves credit.

Here’s how the San Diego Padres offseason looked:

Matt Kemp. [Image via @UTSanDiego]

Outfielders
The marquee acquisition was Matt Kemp, brought over in a trade on December 18 that sent Yasmani Grandal to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kemp provides offense, slashing .287/.346/.506 last year in 599 plate appearances with the Dodgers to go with 25 home runs and 89 RBIs. The downside, though, may be his health; he missed 145 games in 2012 and 2013.

The next day, Preller acquired Justin Upton from the Atlanta Braves and Wil Myers from the Tampa Bay Rays. Upton had a strong 2014 in Atlanta, with a .270/.342/.491 slash line, 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. Upton does strike out a lot – 170 times last year in 641 plate appearances, and 1,026 in his career spanning 4,314 plate appearances (once every 4.2 plate appearances), though thus far his career slash line hasn’t suffered significantly (.274/.354/.476).

Myers, who turned 24 a week before the trade, is an interesting young prospect due for arbitration in 2017, but hit only .222 in Tampa last year in 361 plate appearances after having a break out rookie season in 2013. A good athlete, but a poor defender in the outfield (career -1.5 defensive Wins Above Replacement value), Myers would stand to benefit from the tutelage of Upton, Kemp, Cameron Maybin, and Will Venable.

Collectively, the acquisition of Myers, Kemp, and Upton improve the outfield, and obviously made Seth Smith expendable, as he was traded ten days later to the Seattle Mariners for Brandon Maurer.

The new San Diego Padres. [Image via @Padres]

Infielders
The biggest infield acquisition this offseason was Will Middlebrooks, acquired December 20 from the Boston Red Sox for catcher Ryan Hanigan (to understate it, December 18-20 was kind of a busy period for Preller). Similar to Myers, Middlebrooks had a breakout rookie season but followed it up with poor numbers in 2013 and 2014, hitting .191 last year in 234 plate appearances (63 games) in Boston. The 26-year old Texan is still pre-arbitration eligible, and could stand to benefit from a change of scenery.

On the other end of the spectrum, Preller acquired 35-year old Clint Barmes on a one-year, $1.5 million deal with a team option for 2016. Barmes won’t shock you with the bat, only hitting .246 with 86 home runs in 3,943 career plate appearances, but he’s a consummate veteran with playoff experience, and a great defender (career 16.4 dWAR) who will stabilize the infield and help Alexi Amarista (who, it should be noted, carried a respectable 1.5 dWAR last season) after the departure of Everth Cabrera.

Collectively, the infield was San Diego’s offensive black hole in 2014, and while Barmes and Middlebrooks may not make it better, the outfield acquisitions (coupled with Barmes’ defensive WAR values) offset the shortcomings of 2014.

Catchers
In the same deal that sent Grandal to Los Angeles, Preller brought back Tim Federowicz, who hit .113 in just 71 at-bats last season, and holds a lowly .194/.247/.300 career slash line. But in a different deal on that same day, Preller acquired Derek Norris from the Oakland Athletics. Norris hit .270 with 10 home runs in 127 games last season in Oakland while making the All Start team, and has spent the last three seasons catching one of the most promising young pitching staffs in baseball.

Grandal has thrown out 17% of would-be base stealers in his career and holds a 0.2 career dWAR. Norris (at 22% and 0.8 dWAR) represents a significant upgrade both offensively and defensively and will solidify an already solid pitching staff at Petco Park. Federowicz, who is a defensive whiz (1.2 dWAR, 37% caught stealing) in spite of his poor offense, will be a useful backup along with Wil Nieves.

New uniforms being made! [Image via @MajesticOnField]

Starting Pitching
With the fourth best team ERA in baseball last year, and the seventh best batting average against, the San Diego Padres pitched better than you would expect from a team finishing eight games under .500. Ian Kennedy (13-13, 3.63 ERA), Tyson Ross (13-14, 2.81) and Andrew Cashner (5-7, 2.55) return to a starting rotation that was among the best in baseball last season.

The Padres signed Brandon Morrow in December on a one year, $2.5 million deal with a variety of performance bonuses. While a solid option at rotation depth, Morrow’s only thrown 87.2 innings the last two seasons due to forearm and hand injuries. Nevertheless, the California native is more comfortable in the starting rotation, having started 108 games in his career (231 total), and has allowed a meager .238 batting average against across eight big league seasons.

Overall, while losing promising starter Jesse Hahn in the Norris trade hurts, the big three of Ross, Cashner and Kennedy, combined with the upside of Robbie Erlin and Odrisamer Despaigne, the depth of Morrow, and the potential resurrection of Josh Johnson (more on him below) should make San Diego Padres fans feel good when their starters take the hill in 2015.

Relief Pitching
A major point of strength last year, the bullpen returns intact, with Dale Thayer, Alex Torres, Nick Vincent, Kevin Quackenbush and Joaquin Benoit all back in 2015. Those five combined for a mind-boggling 295 to 92 strikeout to walk ratio in 2014 to go along with 14 wins and 23 saves after the departure of Huston Street. One departure of note was Tim Stauffer, who after falling short of very high expectations as a starting pitching prospect and first round draft pick, settled into his niche in the San Diego Padres bullpen the last two seasons. Stauffer signed a one year, $2.2 million deal with the Minnesota Twins this winter.

Should they all be healthy in 2015, there is no reason to believe the San Diego Padres bullpen won’t be as effective as last season with their five mainstays. Add Brandon Maurer and the newly-acquired Shawn Kelley to the mix, along with the always-interesting and unpredictable Jose Valverde, and it will be business as usual coming out of the pen in San Diego.

Josh Johnson [Image via @MLBbyWordLink]

Off The Radar
After several very solid seasons and two All Star appearances with the Miami Marlins, and then one very bad year with the Toronto Blue Jays, the San Diego Padres took a chance on 6-foot-7 right hander Josh Johnson in 2014. It didn’t pay off; he missed the entire season with an injury. Back in 2015, though, Johnson is on an incredibly team favorable one year deal ($1 million, plus performance bonuses) as he hopes to rebuild value after two disappointing years.

When he’s good, Johnson can dominate, collecting nearly a strikeout per inning spanning 998 frames in his career while only allowing 927 hits. When he’s bad, though, well, he’s just not on the field, missing significant periods to injury in 2013, 2011, 2008 and 2007. Assuming health (a big assumption, especially considering the same was made last season by the Padres), Johnson could be a dark horse ace on a very good pitching staff. 2015 will go a long way to determine whether or not this 31-year old has a future in baseball.

One Big Question
Speculation abounds from many sources, but James Shields makes his offseason home in San Diego, and he’s still looking for a place to pitch in 2015. Additionally, the San Diego Padres have been linked to Cole Hamels. Does A.J. Preller pull the trigger one more time before spring training begins?

TL;DR
You don’t play baseball games on paper, so the San Diego Padres need to prove they are contenders across 162 games (as does everyone else). That being said, though, A.J. Preller has to be the pre-season frontrunner for general manager of the year. The Padres got significantly better in just a few months’ time, and immediately made themselves one of the most formidable teams in baseball, adding offense to an already dominant pitching staff. The San Diego Padres will contend for the National League West in 2015.

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