Pumping The Brakes On Joc Pederson

2012: Everybody hits in A+ Rancho Cucamonga, too
If you thought the PCL was a hitter’s haven, gather ‘round and let me tell you about Pederson’s 2012 outpost, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The Class A-Advanced California League is so brutal on pitchers that organizations are now skipping the level entirely with their best pitching prospects, for fear of ruining their development with inflated ERAs and home run totals. To say it’s a hitter’s league is, um, an understatement.

Of all full-season minor leagues between 2008 and 2012, only the aforementioned PCL compared to the California League at the plate, averaging roughly the same runs per game (5.2 for the PCL, 5.3 for the CL), batting average (.278 to .274), on-base percentage (.348 to .343), slugging percentage (.434 to .422), OPS (.782 to .765), and home run rate (2.8% to 2.5%). Every other full-season minor league fell well short of these two leagues.

In other words, the California League is just as favorable to hitters as the PCL, and Pederson benefitted from that, too. Pederson’s home base, Rancho Cucamonga (which is higher in elevation than every Major League ballpark besides Coors Field) was a very good place to hit in 2012. The team hit 144 home runs in 140 games, slashing .269/.336/.433, while the pitching staff earned a 5.06 ERA (highest in the league!). They only allowed 136 home runs – 1 per game for the entire season – which somehow was middle-of-the-road (if you’re curious, the Stockton Ports allowed 165 home runs in 140 games. Woof.)

League-wide, hitters slashed .273/.342/.427 in 2012, and pitchers allowed a 4.73 ERA and a 1.449 WHIP – all numbers very similar to the PCL in 2014. Pederson himself had a monster year in 2012, slashing .313/.396/.516 with 18 home runs, 26 doubles, 26 stolen bases, and 51 walks in 499 plate appearances spanning 110 games. But again, hitter’s parks, hitter’s league, disclaimer, red flag, etc., etc…

VERDICT: Pederson put up great numbers and certainly outplayed the league average by a wide margin, as he would in 2013 and 2014, but all offensive stats in the California League must be taken with the biggest grain of salt imaginable. Not to short-change Pederson’s totals, but come on, is he going to play 162 games at Coors Field this season?