No Guarantees When Predicting Little Leaguers

(10-and-under all-stars from Chula Vista’s Eastlake Little League, left, face those from that city’s Park View Little League, right, prior to 2018’s California District 42 championship. No guarantees exist as to which side would win in 2020. Photo courtesy of Jon Bigornia.)

Let us revisit a prior statement. This month, CaliSports News published Where Are They Not?. That popular article features Eastlake Little League of Chula Vista’s 2019 Major 11-and-under division all-stars. Eastlake’s team finished second in last year’s Southern California tournament. Are They Not? states that it would be no stretch to believe that a year later, while competing in the 12-and-under division, many of those Eastlake boys might have won the SoCal tournament.

The article even suggests that those young Chula Vistans might have continued as SoCal’s representatives to win the annual West Region tournament held in San Bernardino. And then, Eastlake would rep the West at the Little League World Series in South Williamsport, PA. CSN’s statement in Are They Not? holds true. Based on last year’s results, believing those same Eastlake standouts would compete in S. Williamsport fails to constitute a stretch of imagination.

No guarantees.

However, as much as I love that Chula Vista league, let us be fair. CSN must stipulate that, although not a stretch, still, even expecting a trip to San Bernardino rests on shaky ground. Because, as the above headline states, no guarantees exist when predicting Little Leaguers.

For starters, no guarantee exists that Eastlake would have selected last year’s 11-and-under all-stars for this year’s 12-and-under squad. CSN reported numerous instances in which 11-year-old all-stars failed to get selected the following year. Things could conceivably happen. Especially at talent-rich Eastlake. Perhaps kids that had never played in all-stars before might do so at age 12.

Second, even if Eastlake picked its same boys again, still no guarantee exists that the team would have won Little League’s extremely-competitive California District 42 tournament. Winning that championship at age 11 fails to guarantee repeating as champions at age 12. In fact, as harsh as this may sound to my wonderful Eastlake friends, and this fan of Chula Vista’s Little Leagues apologizes in advance for causing any hurt feelings, history may not side with Eastlake.

The trifecta.

In 2017, that highly-competitive Chula Vista league completed an amazing trifecta. Eastlake won three District 42 Major Division titles that year. That league’s all-star 12’s, 11’s, and even its little 10’s, each captured district banners. Then, those three squads continued winning. All three reached 2017’s Southern California finals in each one’s respective age division. That is correct. That summer, SoCal’s championship games in the 12’s, 11’s, and 10’s, each featured Eastlake all-stars. Incredible domination. Sure enough, Eastlake’s 11-and-unders won 2017’s SoCal title.

So, let us ask the question. Did 2017’s 11-and-under Southern California champions then go on to win 2018’s 12-and-under championship? Sadly, that question’s answer proved to be no. In 2018, Eastlake’s Chula Vista neighbor, Park View Little League, won District 42’s 12-and-under banner, captured Southern California’s crown, and advanced to San Bernardino’s tournament.

A similar phenomenon occurred in 2015. That year, Chula Vista American (CVA) Little League of Chula Vista won District 42’s 11-and-under championship. CVA even moved on that summer to finish second in Southern California. However, a year later, in the 12-and-under division, Park View again won its district and SoCal titles. Park View even advanced in 2016 to S. Williamsport.

So, both in 2016 and in 2018, Park View’s 12’s ate their neighbors’ lunches. And that is why games get played on the field rather than on paper. Anything can happen in a Little League ballpark. That is why this Little League writer learned the hard way not to predict what kids will do based on what those same youngsters accomplished a year earlier at an even younger age.

But what if?

Thus, 2020’s Park View 12-year-old’s arguably held just as great of a chance as did Eastlake’s 12’s to play in a Little League World Series, had that event been held this year. But, there is more. Two years ago, as 10-year-old’s, those same Chula Vista kids squared off against each other in the District 42 finals. As depicted in the featured photo at the top of this article, Eastlake faced Park View in 2018’s 10-and-under championship. Eastlake won the game that day. That league’s all-stars then captured the SoCal Section 7 crown. Eastlake’s 10’s finished among SoCal’s top teams that year. But, had the game against Park View gone the other way, perhaps Park View would have snagged the section crown, and ended up as one of SoCal’s top finalists.

Hence, it is no stretch to believe that at age 12, Park View’s kids would steal their rivals’ lunch. Park View chewed Eastlake’s lunch that way in 2018, and similarly chewed a neighbor’s lunch in 2016. Park View could have put the chew into Chewla Vista by likewise eating someone’s lunch in 2020. From there, Park View could have moved on to San Bernardino as that league had done so in 2016 and in 2018. And then, history would seem to repeat itself every two years.

Chewla Vista.

But, let us be clear. Although that I likewise love Park View, I am not saying it would have won banners this year. Instead, I am merely clarifying that no guarantee existed for Eastlake. Nor for any league. We must keep in mind that District 42 serves as home to Little League’s famous “three-headed monster“. Eastlake, Park View, and Bonita’s Sweetwater Valley Little League, serve as that beast’s three deadly heads. Each of them can cause lethal damage. Even when least expected. Each can eat and chew your lunch. That is why the town is called Chewla Vista.

Likewise, 12-and-under all-stars from Sweetwater Valley would arguably hold just as great of a chance to go to S. Williamsport as would ones from the beast’s other heads, if officials allowed a world series this year. In 2019, Sweetwater Valley lost to Eastlake in District 42’s 11-and-under championship. With a different result in that contest, perhaps Sweetwater Valley, instead of Eastlake, would have reached last year’s SoCal finals. Never under-estimate a monster head.

On a similar note, let us discuss next year. A preseason favorite might seemingly be Chula Vista American. In 2019, that league won District 42’s 10-and-under championship. Those all-stars then finished tied for fifth in SoCal. Two years later, in 2021, the same youngsters might prove to be 12-and-under champions. However, as much as I love that Chula Vista league, no guarantees exist for it, either. As we see from recent history, anything can happen in a Little League ballpark.

Taking a look at 2021.

Incidentally, I still stand by what I wrote last year in regards to Chula Vista American’s then-10-and-under all-stars. In Bonita Killers Smash Section 7, 10U Monster-Slayer Makes History, I stated: “In two years from now, maybe those same players that compose this year’s 10U roster will follow the three-headed beast’s lead by going on as 12-year-old’s to the Little League World Series in South Williamsport, PA. If that does occur, I shall immediately stop using the terms ‘three-headed monster’ and ‘monster slayer’.” As I wrote, instead, I shall refer to Chula Vista American, Eastlake, Park View, and Sweetwater Valley, as simply “The Fearsome Foursome”.

Monster-slayer defined.

Now, let me present a quick refresher course for understanding this sportswriter’s jargon. According to Rabbi Rabbs, District 42’s monster contains three heads, because three of the district’s leagues earned them. How did they earn them? By recently playing on national television in S. Williamsport. Chula Vista American never played in the Little League World Series. Thus, although that league weighs in as very competitive, it is not part of the beast.

However, Chula Vista American boasts a history of beating all-star teams representing the monster. That is how Chula Vista American affectionately got dubbed as a monster-slayer. But, no one in District 42, including Chula Vista American, has fully slayed the beast in a very long time. To do that requires winning District 42’s 12U championship. Doing so effectively ends the mighty beast’s reign over that district. Ending it poses a daunting task. As I wrote in District 42 Monster Ready To Rumble: “The last platoon to harpoon the monster was Chula Vista’s South Bay Little League. That was back in 2007.” Since then, the three monster heads won every District 42 12U title. Chula Vista American vies to end that streak. If successful, that league would then be more than merely a monster-slayer. Chula Vista American might then adopt a new nickname of Captain Ahab, for having harpooned the ferocious beast. I hope that makes sense.

Again, if Chula Vista American were to reach S. Williamsport, that league would then become part of a new fearsome foursome. As such, Chula Vista American cannot become a monster, nor a monster’s head. The league can only remain as a monster-slayer, or become Captain Ahab or part of a new, much-feared quartet. Those present themselves as CVA’s only nickname options.

My two shekels.

Lastly, in last week’s Monster Spawns New Little League?, I wrote that the proposed Otay Ranch Little League could potentially become a fourth head to the monster. Just to clarify, what I wrote rings true. Because, that new league would be unique. It would be formed, or spawned, from within the monster’s boundaries. So, Otay Ranch would inherently be part of the monster. Not by winning anything, but by virtue of being spawned. Sounds crazy. But, the explanation makes sense. So, if Otay Ranch were to reach S. Williamsport, then that league would inherit the distinguished title of being dubbed a fourth head, while the rest of the district’s leagues can never do the same. The other six can only become Captain Ahab or part of a fearsome foursome. Think of Otay Ranch as royalty. The infantile league would enter into a prominence that others perhaps more deserving cannot obtain. But, no one needs to pay attention to me. Because, what do I know? I am just a lazy rabbi that drives a 30-year-old car. And, those are my two shekels.

Teamwork makes the dream work.

CaliSports News thanks everyone that shares our articles. Teamwork makes the dream work. On that note, CSN thanks Eastlake and District 42 for sharing Monster Spawns on Facebook. And with that, we conclude Rabbi Rabbs’ 11th straight weekly article covering Little League. Moving forward, I am switching from weekly to monthly installments. My next Little League article will likely go online in mid-November. So, watch for it around Nov. 18. Until then, Go Three-Headed Monster, Monster Slayer, Bonita, Chewla Vista, and the rest of District 42 !! Let’s Go SoCal !!

Stay with CaliSportsNews.com, Southern California’s undisputed leader in Little League coverage, as we keep you up-to-date on all things SoCal sports! All Cali, All the time!

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