Manuel Margot- Padres Prospect Spotlight

By Guest Writer
- Tweet
- Pin It
Updated: February 23, 2016

When Padres General Manager A.J. Preller decided not to trade any big names at the 2015 trade deadline, the narrative was as if the Rockstar GM of the 2014/15 offseason instead just wanted to hide under a rock when it became obvious that his bold moves backfired. Instead of pulling the trigger on a deal that would have reportedly sent Craig Kimbrel to the Yankees in exchange for their lightning quick shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo, it looked like Preller was just sticking his head in the ground when he decided to stand pat at the deadline. Based on his comments to the San Diego Union Tribune right after the deadline that “we like our team”, it seemed like he thought the Padres could still compete for a playoff spot down the stretch. Maybe he never actually believed that, and was instead eyeing the postseason as a better time to cash in. As it turns out, elite closers will always be in demand (shocker), and Preller was able to procure several talented prospects from the Red Sox in exchange for Craig Kimbrel right after the 2015 season. Perhaps the most talented of the group is center-fielder Manuel Margot.

Signed by the Red Sox from the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old in 2011, Manuel Margot is now one of baseball’s top prospects. As a contact hitting speedster with plus fielding ability, he profiles as the Padres long term center-fielder and potential leadoff hitter of the future. He is noted as having a strong command of the strike zone, and his stats back up the scouting report as he’s struck out only 129 times in 342 games in his minor league career. He doesn’t walk much either though, so there is a danger that he’ll have to rely on hitting for a high average just to post a solid on base percentage. However, such a low strikeout rate is rare nowadays, so perhaps he will be able to learn to talk more walks . Whether he is able to develop that part of his game or not, his contact skills and speed on the basepaths will give him a chance to be a top of the order mainstay. In 2015 Margot successfully stole 39 bases compared to being caught 13 times. While not an elite ratio, it is still pretty danged good. A reasonable expectation for his major league stolen base total per year is probably in the 25-30 range.

In 2015 he was a top 100 prospect on many top 100 lists and going into 2016 he is ranked the 45th best prospect by mlb.com’s prospect watch page . The site grades his future hit tool as at 60 on the 20-80 scale, but I’ve seen his hit tool graded lower that that as an average 50, and also as an above average 55. Perhaps the difference lies in the how a specific evaluator views Margot’s potential for increased patience at the plate which would increase his walk total. Thanks to his bat speed and line drive oriented swing, it is likely that Margot will be at least skilled enough to provide average production at the plate in the big leagues one day. The exciting thing is that he’ll be able to do more than that in field, and at a premium position no less. In addition to his 65 grade speed, evaluators note that he “takes good routes and can go side to side as well as backtrack and come in well”. Looking at his stats, his RF/9 (range factor per nine innings played, which is putouts plus assists divided by innings played) as a minor leaguer is 2.83. In four seasons in the minors, Mike Trout had RF/9 of 2.03, and Trout’s RF/9 actually improved to 2.61 in his first four seasons in the majors. Before we get carried away thinking Margot can be a better defender that Trout, Trout’s fielding percentage has always been about 99%, while Margot’s has been merely 98%. The point is, Margot is a natural in the field with the speed and intelligence to handle center-field, and an arm that could play in left field as well. In many ways he’s the exact opposite of a lot of A.J. Preller’s acquisitions so far considering defense, speed, and the ability to make contact are his calling cards.

Margot will probably start 2016 in AA. Given his speed and defense he has a chance to move quickly through the upper minors and possibly into the majors for a cup of coffee in September. The starting job in center-field for the Padres is quite possibly Margot’s to lose in 2017.

Stay with us at Calisportsnews.com as we will keep you up-to-date on all things San Diego Padres and the rest of the SoCal sports teams! All Cali, All the time!