Los Angeles Clippers: Josh Smith 2015-16 Predictions

By Connor Aylward
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Updated: October 9, 2015

For years now the Clippers have needed a big man who possesses the ability to make the mid to long range shot. Particularly in the second unit as Blake Griffin has improved in this category in recent seasons. Clippers fans know all too well that Josh Smith has this ability (See last seasons’ playoffs, particularly game 6). Smith, known for his high-flying abilities in his younger years has settled into a rangy power or small forward recently.

At times, Smith can be known for being rather cavalier with shot selection and can leave fans on the edge of their seats with their hands in their palms. Last season Smith shot just 33% from three point range in his 55 games with Houston. Smith, who will be asked to play more of the backup 4 to Griffin this season, will not be asked to shoot nearly as many threes as he did last season. However Smith will undoubtedly take more than a few of these shots, likely to the disdain of Clipper fans.

If Smith can improve his shot selection from long range this season, and in doing so decrease the bad number of threes taken, he could vastly improve his three point percentage from the lowly 33% of last season to something as high as 36%-39% even. This would give the Clippers the opportunity to space the floor with the second unit, especially if the Clippers continue to use a small ball lineup with the second unit that slots Smith against bigger, slower defenders continuously.

Another benefit of having Smith is the rebounding ability he can bring off of the bench. Last season, in a similar role with the Rockets he was able to grab 6.0 rebounds per game. At the peak of Smith’s career he was able to bring in 9.6 RPG during the 2011-12 season with Atlanta, but as his playing time has decreased just as one might expect the eleven year NBA veteran’s numbers have decreased as well. Smith’s switch from power to small forward as his shooting range expanded also led to the decline in rebounding numbers.

With Smith expecting to receive less minutes this season that he likely has ever received behind Blake Griffin, his rebound numbers will likely take a hit. Although it appears the Clippers will use Smith from time to time at the Center position in a small ball second unit, I would expect the former Atlanta Hawk to reel in around 4.9 RPG for the Clippers this season. The drop could not only be contributed to lesser playing time but also playing alongside rebounding specialists in Deandre Jordan and Cole Aldrich.

Josh Smith brings in a defensive flair to his game that the Clippers could benefit greatly from. Smith, known as one of the league’s best shot blockers at his prime has also slightly declined in this category. Getting as many as 2.9 blocks per game in the 2005-06 season at his most, last season Smith averaged just 1.2 BPG for Houston. Even so, that type of defensive paint protecting would help a Clippers second unit that has lacked in such a category in recent years.

Again, with Smith’s declining number of minutes it is hard to imagine many stats increasing for the big man. However this one is different as Smith will likely be playing in the paint more than he has in recent seasons in the aforementioned small ball lineup. I would expect Smith’s BPG to increase from last season to a very helpful 1.5 BPG. This would be a massive help to the Clippers defense and allow DeAndre Jordan a little more time to rest as Smith could help the team keep a stringent defense even with the three-time rebounding champ off the floor.

No matter the stats for Smith this season he is sure to bring some excitement off the Clipper bench. Smith will likely be the first big off the bench for Los Angeles and one would expect his mix of speed and shooting range to be a great mismatch for the Clippers against opposing bigs. Go Clips Go!

Final Statistical Predictions in 2015-16 for Josh Smith

PPG: 11.2

RPG: 4.9

APG: 2.1

BPG: 1.5

FG%: 41%

3P%: 37%

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