LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks First Round Playoff Predictions
- Updated: April 14, 2016
Los Angeles Kings vs San Jose Sharks
Lori Hultin
The 2016 Stanley Cup playoffs are finally here and the good news is, the Los Angeles Kings clinched a spot early on. The bad news is, they basically hobbled to the finish line, winning only four of their last 11 regular season games, they blew a 3-0 lead against the Winnipeg Jets – a non-playoff team – in their final game of the season, essentially handing the division title to the Anaheim Ducks, and oh – guess what? They get to face the San Jose Sharks, yet again, in the first round of the playoffs.
You won’t ever find me predicting that the Kings will lose their first round. I know many “experts” have the Sharks winning the series because of the pride and revenge factor and it’s a good argument, but there is no way I would bet against the resilient nature of the LA Kings, Jonathan Quick in-goal and a team that knows what it takes to win multiple championships.
With all of that said, the Kings have work to do. Last season, we saw evidence that the Kings are no longer a team that can count on simply “flipping the switch”. Last year, that mentality cost them a playoff spot altogether. The Kings have to get back to the kind of consistent, shut-down, defense-first play that had them breezing through Chicago and Dallas just a few weeks back with massive wins and had them clinching their playoff spot on home ice early in the season against the Boston Bruins. The offense has been there, but the Kings are giving up far too many chances and most importantly, seem to have lost their ability to hold a lead and play a full 60 minutes. To win against any team in the playoffs, they have to get back to that style of play; they know and we know they are capable of it.
It’s not going to be easy but I say the Kings put it away in six games. I don’t think they want a repeat of the 0-3 comeback from 2014 and this series is likely to be hard-fought with the Sharks trying their best not to repeat their mistakes from the last playoff meeting. While the regular season is completely different from playoffs, the Sharks have been better on the road than at home this season and they did beat the Kings twice at Staples and won three of the five times the two teams met. What does that mean? It means home ice advantage is not enough. The Kings need to come fully prepared to play 60 minutes of Kings-style hockey. And, in my opinion, the “X-factor” for the Sharks is goaltender, Martin Jones. He’s the only one on their team who knows what it’s like to win a Cup and while he has a long way to go to become an elite goalie, he’s on the right path.
Emily Redenbach
Oh Lordy, here we go again. My prediction: I’ll end up beating a Sharks fan who tries to Shark Chomp or chant “Beat LA.” I’m only kind of kidding. So this is the 4th time in 6 years the Sharks and Kings have faced off in the playoffs. Twice the Kings were victorious, and once they were without Anze Kopitar. If we’ve learned anything from their face-off in 2014 it should be that the Kings have the resilience of a Stanley Cup proven team. Yes they went down 3-0 but for a bad bounce in OT that third game the Kings wouldn’t have. They learned from their mistakes the first two games and refused to lay down and die. Seeing their play in game 3 at home, there was no way they were going to let the Sharks take them down. And seeing the way the Sharks played from game 4 onwards there was no way the Sharks had what it takes to beat the Kings.
The Sharks have made some personnel changes but the addition of our beloved Martin Jones still won’t be enough to top Jonathan Quick or the Kings defense. Alec Martinez will be back in the lineup, which will add back what the Kings have been lacking in recent weeks. By my count the Kings have 18 Stanley Cup Champions in their midst. The Sharks have 1. And even though the Sharks took the regular season 3-2, the Kings are built for the playoffs. They play better when there’s pressure. I’m hardly expecting the Sharks to give us the series; the Kings have had some issues of late (not being able to finish off a period for one!) that could seriously damper their chances. And it would be a mistake to underestimate the Sharks. But if the Kings don’t get complacent and the Sharks do what they do best – choke when it counts – expect the Kings to be moving on. So while yes, it’ll be a grueling series – the teams are incredibly similar if you look at the statistics – the Kings have what it takes to pull off the win. Maybe they didn’t close out the regular season the way they wanted but 2 of the last 3 playoff seasons they closed out the post season the way they wanted to despite all kinds of regular season setbacks.
Sean Stone
I can’t see the Kings not coming out with an extra level of intensity after letting the division title slip to the Ducks on the last weekend of the season. I actually think it was a blessing in disguise for the Kings to have lost out on the division title, because that means they avoid a Predators team that I’m really high on. Maybe there’s an upset waiting to happen here. The Sharks redeeming themselves after their nightmare against the Kings two years ago would make for a nice story. But I just don’t see it happening. The Sharks finished the season with a ridiculously good road record, going 20-10-3 away from home, while just winning 18 home games. They’ll hope that trend continues in the playoffs as they don’t have home ice (dis?)advantage against the Kings. I just can’t see the Kings struggling on home ice, though. Jonathon Quick is too good. Darryl Sutter is too good. The Kings playoff mojo is too good. And while the Sharks scored more goals than the Kings did in the regular season, I don’t know how many offenses are better suited for the playoffs than what the Kings have. I’ll take the bruising Milan Lucic, slick Anze Kopitar, and deadly accurate Jeff Carter over almost anyone else. Kings in 5.
Phil Loos
Even scarier, they control the High Danger Scoring Chance battle even more handily, hovering around 58%, also since the end of January. One could explain away their recent PDO spike by saying they’ve been a bit lucky lately, but when you control the high danger chances the way they do, it’s not a surprise their SV% and SH% would get a boost. You can see that the PDO boost tracks nicely when they really began to control the scoring chance battle. The Kings, on the other hand, have seen a major spike in PDO for no apparent reason. I believe in the Sharks’ strong percentages more than I do the Kings’.
On top of this, the Sharks do a MUCH better job staying out of the box than their opponents do, something the Kings traditionally struggle with and did again this season. When the Sharks do get the man advantage, they take advantage of it, ranking 3rd in PP% at 22.5%. The Kings aren’t too shabby either ranking 8th at 20.0%. Kings and the Sharks have both struggled this season on the PK, with the Kings ranking 15th at 81.4% and the Sharks 21st at 80.5%. Considering how much better the Sharks are at drawing and avoiding penalties, special teams advantage goes to the Sharks.
Jeff Duarte
My colleagues have done a great job raising some very important and key points when it comes to this upcoming playoff battle between the Kings and the Sharks. I’m not sure what more I can add to it except to say that I am getting some red flags for the Kings when it comes to playing the Sharks again in the playoffs. But honestly, as a long-time superstitious Kings fan, I always get red flags anyways when it comes to any playoff series involving my beloved LA Kings.
What does worry me the most about this series is the huge gap during the regular season that the Sharks have with the man advantage in comparison to the Kings. Let’s be honest, and like Phil mentioned as the numbers prove this to be correct, the Kings have NOT been doing a great or good job with their penalty killing. Also add the fact that the Kings are one of the most penalized teams in the league AND that they have been prone to give up leads of any kind in the third period (the last game of the season against Winnipeg that cost the Kings the Pacific Division crown is a perfect example), with the Sharks being excellent in the Power Play department: this has me worried.
The Sharks have been under the radar all season. All expectations and pressures put on them in the past evaporated back in 2014. Now they are not expected to win division titles or the President’s Trophy anymore, they can be allowed to just play hockey, and have been playing great underrated (even forgotten) hockey this season. With revenge for 2014 on their minds against the Kings, the Sharks really have nothing to lose.
Still, do they have the mental strength, resilience and intestinal fortitude to finally get the job done? With or without the added pressures that the Sharks have faced in the past, they still know who they’re dealing with in the Kings in the intense, pressured environment that is the Stanley Cup playoffs and there has to be a nervous factor with that. Do the Sharks have FULL confidence in themselves when it comes to the playoffs to do what it takes to be winners? They have the potential to do so, and have had that potential for years but if there is one thing you have to give to the Kings, it is that they don’t lack confidence in each other. If anything they feed off of that type of energy.
Call me a homer or biased or whatever you want, but when I think about the fact that the Kings have home ice advantage for a possible game 7 at the Staples Center AND they have some dude by the name of JONATHAN QUICK in net for that game 7, there is no way I can pick Martin Jones or James Reimer against one of the best money goalies in the league when there is something on the line. Quick has proven again, and again, and again that when the going gets tough, and it becomes crunch time, he’s the one making the one BIG save near the end of the playoff game to keep his team in it to win it. Even if Quick gives up a poor goal or two earlier in that same game, at crunch time he makes that big key save and that’s all the difference in the world. That is why he IS elite, despite what the analytics may or may not say. If you need that big save at that time when you need it most, the 2012 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is your guy.
He did it in 2012, he did it against the Sharks in game 7 of that 2013 playoff series and he did it again and again during the epic yet insane Cup run of 2014 against these same Sharks, and Ducks, and Hawks and Rangers. I can’t say the same about playoff rookie and former King Martin Jones, who honestly sat on the bench for that 2014 run with the Kings minus the couple of times he finished a game in which Quick ended up getting the hook. Quick was that guy who won the Cup twice in net for the Kings and getting those wins while providing those huge saves. I’m a big fan of “Joner” and he has all the potential in the world. I truly think he can reach the stars and back on his own merit but he does NOT have that NHL playoff experience. Sitting on the bench doesn’t give you that. You have to play on that ice to learn and achieve that. Just ask Jonathan Bernier.
James Reimer played for the Leafs in their last playoff appearance in 2013 and was in net for that epic disaster of a meltdown in the third period that the Leafs suffered against the Boston Bruins after being up 4-1 during the third period of that game 7. Boston ended up winning that game 5-4 in overtime. Reimer 0f course no longer faces the same over-the- top frenetic and fishbowl-like pressure that he did in the starving for a championship market that is Leafs nation and he has played solid in his short time with San Jose. Jones has played solid as well as a starting goaltender for the Sharks in his first season of being the top guy in net but being solid in the playoffs where the intensity rises by a thousand and all eyes are watching you completely changes that dynamic. Quick has been there and done that and won. I’m using the home ice advantage and the Jonathan Quick factor as my reasoning for selecting the Kings to prevail over the Sharks in yet another tight and tough 7 game series.
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