LA Kings: 6 Early Season Trends
- Updated: November 3, 2015
The opening month in the NHL has come and gone, and though much can and will change over the remaining 72 games, there are still a few things we can likely take away from the first 10 games of the Kings’ season that can give us a hint at things to come. Here are 7 early season trends that are likely here to stay.
- The LA Kings are who we thought they were (i.e. really good)
After failing to qualify for the playoffs last year, the Kings were expected to come into this year with a vengeance and re-establish themselves among the league’s elite. Then they promptly started the season by looking like they had never played hockey in their lives. I’m not prone to over-reacting to small sample sizes, but even I raised an eyebrow after the Kings 0-3 start. The first line, especially Milan Lucic, looked bad. Jonathan Quick looked worse. Brayden McNabb was benched for a human traffic cone Jeff Schultz for God knows what reason. The Kings inability to score didn’t worry me much, but there were three things that did: Lucic’s terrible fit alongside Kopitar and Gaborik, Quick’s shaky play in net, and the fact the Kings struggled in the possession game, which had been their bread and butter since 2012.
Well, a 7 game win streak has put all that to rest, as Lucic has looked right at home alongside Carter and Toffoli, and Quick returned to the Quick many expected. But most importantly, during that streak, the Kings have once again shown they are one of the league’s possession beasts. After finishing 1st, 1st and 5th in the league in Fenwick Close % the last 3 years with FenClose percentages of 58%, 57%, and 54%, they currently sit 4th in the league at 56%. Why is that important? The last 4 Stanley Cup Champions were 1st (2012 Kings post-Carter trade), 3rd (Hawks), 1st (Kings) and 4th (Hawks) in this very stat. Yeah, possession of the puck is important, and the Kings do it as well as anyone.
- Toffoli is a more-than-adequate replacement for Justin Williams
9 goals in 10 games? Yeah, that’ll do just fine. Now, we must keep in mind that there is ZERO chance that he sustains this scoring rate, as his 34.6% shooting percentage is probably at least double what he’ll end the season with. But I was high on him before the season started, tabbing him to lead the Kings in scoring, and he’s done nothing but cement my existing opinion that he is a burgeoning superstar. The scary part is that he has room to improve. Toffoli has traditionally been an excellent possession player in addition to being a high-end scorer, but his possession numbers so far this year are just so-so, at least in comparison to his own high standards. I expect that to change and help offset the inevitable decline in shooting percentage. Williams is still missed, but Toffoli’s outstanding play has made J-Dub’s departure sting a little less.
- Nick Shore is an NHL-quality center, and a big upgrade over Jarret Stoll
Nick Shore was a major question mark coming into the season. I was 100% positive that Shore would be LEAST equal to Stoll, and was pretty sure he’d be an upgrade. The question, in my mind, was just how much of an upgrade.
The answer: big upgrade. Now, you probably look at Shore’s 1 goal, 0 assists and -4 rating and wonder how I can possibly say this. First, remember that in sample sizes this small, the number of points a player scores and his plus/minus are very much subject to luck. Nick Shore’s 90.88 PDO suggests he’s been on the wrong side of the luck coin so far. But you need to look beyond the superficial box score numbers to see his value. Aside from his team-leading 52% faceoff percentage, he has also been the Kings’ best possession forward.
Yes, he has faced easier competition than Carter and Kopitar, and yes, he needs to start putting points on the board, but he has not been a passenger riding the coattails of great linemates. He has mostly been paired with Tanner Pearson and Trevor Lewis, who, while fine players, are not exactly possession beasts. While Shore and Lewis haven’t been lighting the world on fire together, Shore and Pearson have been excellent, especially when on the ice with Martinez and Muzzin. (See: 6+21+70 and 21+27+70 in the upper part of the graph below)
Add in the fact that Shore has the third best scoring chance differential on the team at +15 (according to War-on-Ice), and I’m very confident that the point totals and the +/- rating will come as long as he continues doing what he’s doing. This is a refreshing change after several years of sub-par play from the 3rd line that was anchored down by Stoll.
- Christian Ehrhoff has been exactly what the Kings hoped for
Ehrhoff seems to have escaped Mike Ribeiro‘s attempt to murder him with little more than a stiff neck, and this is phenomenal news for Ehrhoff and the Kings, as Ehrhoff has been exactly what the doctor ordered for this defense. So far, Ehrhoff has been the Kings’ best possession player. In fact, his Corsi For% of 60.43% has been the 7th best in the entire league (minimum 100 minutes played).
No, Corsi For% does not tell the whole story, but it’s a good place to start, and when we look at Ehrhoff’s With Or Without You (WOWY) graph, we see that he is improving the play of almost everyone he plays with.
The Kings took a small $1.5m gamble that the Ehrhoff that played in Pittsburgh was the anomaly, and that the version from Buffalo was the one they’d be getting. If he continues this level of play and stays healthy, this might be the steal of the offseason, just as I thought it might be.
- Jonathan Quick has been sharp
After two rough games to open the season, Quick has really found his groove. His 93.44% even strength SV% puts him 9th in the league, and would be right up there with his 93.52 EVSV% from his historic 2012 season. It is unlikely it remains this high all season, but there is precedent for him doing it before. If the Kings get a 2012 throwback performance from Quick all season, they almost certainly will win the Pacific, and with how competitive the Central Division is, they’d have a real shot at the #1 seed in the West. This is one to keep an eye on, as Quick’s performance, as with many goalies, is prone to massive fluctuations.
- The 4th line is bad
All of my points so far have been positive, and rightfully so, as there are a lot of good things happening to give Kings fans plenty of optimism. There are a few minor concerns still out there – Kopitar’s puzzling lack of assists, Gaborik’s poor play, Brown’s continued inability to find pay dirt despite putting up 39 shots on goal – but the only real weak spot for this team is the 4th line, and more specifically, Jordan Nolan and Andy Andreoff. Let’s revisit that Kings WOWY chart again:
The 4th line players are total outliers on a team that is otherwise an outstanding possession team. But really, the only one that is eye-gougingly bad is Andreoff. No matter who he plays with, he cannot break even in possession. Worse, he turns everyone he plays with into a negative possession player.
The good news is the Kings have in-house options to replace the entire 4th line. Jordan Weal would certainly be an upgrade over Andreoff, and I’m just perplexed beyond reason why this switch has not happened. Michael Mersch, who is the young leader of the Ontario Reign which is currently dominating in the AHL, would certainly be an upgrade over Nolan. And Dwight King, when he returns from injury, would be an upgrade over Clifford. Ideally, the Kings would ice 4 lines that look like this:
- Gaborik-Kopitar-Brown
- Lucic-Carter-Toffoli
- Pearson-Shore-Mersch
- King-Weal-Lewis
These are just some of the early season trends to keep an eye on as the season progresses, but almost all signs point to good things ahead for the Kings this year. After a year of bad luck, the Kings were due for a regular season where things broke their way. Let’s just hope it stays that way.
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