Kings Proving It’s Better to be Lucky and Good

Well, let’s start with the Kings. Yes, despite the frustrating losses lately, they’re really good. In fact, they have as much a case as anyone to the title of best team in the league. Their event, score and venue-adjusted (ESVA) Corsi-for % is 56.7, good for 1^st in the league by a 2.2 percentage points. (For the uninitiated, here’s why score-adjusted Corsi matters.) To put this in perspective, the difference between the Kings and the 2^nd place Dallas Stars is the same as the difference between the 6^th place Washington Capitals and the 16^th place Anaheim Ducks. But how does this 56.7 ESVA CF% stack up against previous league leaders, Presidents’ Trophy winners and Stanley Cup champs over the past few years?

It turns out they stack up quite well. You’ll notice that leading the league in ESVA CF% is a pretty good indication that a shiny, silver cup is in that team’s future. In 4 out of the last 6 years, the ESVA CF% leader won the cup (highlighted in green in the chart above). Plus, the 2 times in the past 6 years that the league leader in ESVA CF% did NOT win the Cup come with big asterisks.

1. The 2011-2012 Red Wings didn’t win the cup because the eventual champion LA Kings were a vastly different team after replacing head coach Terry Murray with Darryl Sutter and swapping out Jack Johnson for Jeff Carter. After the trade deadline, the Kings had a 59.7 ESVA CF%, which was easily best in the league and had they kept that mark for a full season, would have been better than any team in league history.
2. The 2010-2011 ESVA CF% leading Vancouver Canucks were literally as close as you can come to winning it all without actually winning it all, losing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals to the Boston Bruins (who were 6^th in the league in ESVA CF%) and their scorching-hot goalie Tim Thomas.

So leading the league in ESVA CF%, as the Kings do now by a country mile, almost always portends good things ahead. Hopefully this holds true for this year’s Kings.