Jose De Leon Spotlight

By Guest Writer
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Updated: April 1, 2016

In 2013 Jose De Leon was the ace pitcher of a college in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Being the home of LSU, Baton Rouge is no stranger to talented prospects. De Leon, however, attended Southern University. Turns out being the ace at Southern doesn’t garner quite the same attention as being the ace at LSU, and he fell all the way to the 24^th round of the 2013 draft before the Dodgers took a chance on him. The year before LSU’s ace was Kevin Gausman and he didn’t even fall out of the top five before the Orioles took him with the fourth overall pick. Since turning pro De Leon has shot up prospects lists and looks to have legitimate middle of the rotation potential. Which by the way, is exactly where Gausman finds himself with the Orioles. So what happened? How did someone like De Leon drop so far? The Dodgers probably feel pretty smart having snagged him so late, but they still passed on him for twenty-three rounds. No team plans on drafting a potential rotation stalwart in the 24^th round, so even to the Dodgers he was merely a lottery ticket. What did scouts miss?

The better question is “what changed?”. And the answer is a lot. De Leon focused on physical fitness more as a pro and his improved conditioning caused his stuff to get better across the board. He added velocity and control, so his already good strikeout rate became elite, and his risky control become respectable. Better than that even. While in A ball he walked less than a batter per nine innings and in High A he walked less than 2 per nine innings. The move up to AA proved to be difficult as De Leon’s control issues resurfaced. His walk rate rose to 3.4 per 9 innings, but his crazy good K per 9 stayed steady at 12.3. While the walks are a little concerning, it’s nothing new for a prospect to struggle in his first taste of AA. If he keeps inducing whiffs, the Dodgers won’t mind if his walk rate is a little elevated.

Comparing Gausman and De Leon is a good example of the unpredictable nature of prospects. Since Gausman was drafted his stock has stayed the same, or even dropped a little. Whereas De Leon has gone from unknown to yet another exciting prospect in the Dodgers farm. (Being a Padres fan, writing that sentence hurt a little). The difference in talent between a top 5 pick and a 24^th round afterthought can be erased by a simple conditioning adjustment that unlocks better stuff. Going the other way with it, a toolsy prospect that looks like he has a high ceiling can flame out just as easily. So just because De Leon now looks like that high ceiling guy, he hasn’t reached that ceiling yet. (Although it’s hard not to already get excited about that K rate.)

De Leon made three relief appearances this spring, striking out five and walking none in six innings, but he did give up three homers, and will finish spring training in minor league camp. He likes to pound the strike zone, so it will be vital that he works on his command while in the minors this season because once he makes the majors he will face a bevy of sluggers that make a living by clobbering mistake pitches out of the park. Watching his walks and home runs given up this year will be telling, and could forecast a promotion to the majors if he makes improvements. If he doesn’t start the year in AAA he will likely make it there before long, and could make it LA in September when rosters expand.

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