On James Shields And Brandon Webb

By Bobby DeMuro
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Updated: March 1, 2015

In 197 starts from his debut on April 22, 2003, through 2008, Brandon Webb was really good. The groundball guru went 87-62 in 1315.2 innings with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP, and allowed less than 1,200 hits.

He nearly won Rookie of the Year in 2003 (lost to Dontrelle Willis), and represented the Diamondbacks in three All Star games. He won the Cy Young Award in ’06, and finished second in 2007 (to Jake Peavy) and 2008 (to Tim Lincecum). He won more games (70) than anyone between 2005 and 2008, including Roy Oswalt (66), Johan Santana (66), and Roy Halladay (64).

He didn’t do it with a power fastball or nasty off-speed offering; he had a damn good sinker. According to FanGraphs, 249 starting pitchers threw at least 400 innings between 2002 and 2012. Webb led everyone with a 64.2% ground ball rate.

He was a workhorse, too. After throwing 180.2 innings in 28 starts of his not-quite-full rookie season, Webb logged over 200 innings and 33-35 starts every year between 2004 and 2008, never failing to take the ball every fifth day. For those five years, he was among the best in baseball.

And then, at 29 years old, it was over.

On April 6, 2009 – Opening Day – Webb threw 4 innings, and gave up 6 hits and 6 runs. After feeling shoulder discomfort, he was placed on the disabled list and missed his first start in years.

“It popped up at the end of Spring Training,” Webb told MLB.com at the time. “It’s more of a muscle thing, and not a joint thing. They tested the strength of my shoulder this week, and it tested out stronger than it’s ever been. I really don’t feel like this is a big deal.”

He never pitched again.

After multiple shoulder surgeries, and four years of rehabilitation, he retired in 2013. What started as “a muscle thing,” ended Webb’s career. He had shoulder trouble in high school, but never as a professional. Shoulder problems snuck up out of nowhere, and when the not-yet-30-year old should’ve been in his prime, Webb was finished.

Brandon Webb in 2008 [Image via Wikipedia]

Like Webb, James Shields is an example of remarkable durability and talent. After his own not-quite-full rookie season, Shields has thrown more than 200 innings and logged over 30 starts in eight consecutive years, earning a 114-90 record, a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over nearly 2,000 innings. Without a doubt, his durability is one of the reasons the Padres paid him handsomely.

And like Webb, James Shields had a serious (but singular) shoulder issue years ago; he missed the entire season in 2002 after having a benign cyst removed from his throwing shoulder.

“It ended up growing and getting enflamed,” Shields told MLB.com regarding the cyst, “so they went in and took it out, and cleaned up some labrums and rotator cuff stuff. It just so happened it was in my right shoulder. It could’ve just as easily been in my leg.”

That’s true, it could’ve been in his leg, but it was his shoulder. And cleaning up “some labrum and rotator cuff stuff,” while removing the cyst indicates he had already put wear and tear on the shoulder by 2002 (to be expected from everyone who throws a baseball for a living).

Before signing him, the Padres were concerned about the mileage on Shields’ arm. Obviously, the Padres felt good enough about him that they decided he was worth the gamble. But are they right?

No one can predict future injuries. And it’s kind of unfair to cherry pick Shields by using Webb as the comparison point. I could just as easily have chosen Tim Hudson, who has proven to be incredibly durable as he nears 40 years old. The Webb-Shields comparison isn’t perfect, but these two do have a lot in common.

Both are workhorses, taking the ball every fifth day. Both have proven this years in a row, when more pitchers are experiencing more injuries than ever before. Both are physically similar, and neither are power pitchers. Webb relied on a high-80s sinker; Shields is no flame thrower himself, using a change up to disrupt hitters’ timing. And both have a shoulder issue in their (distant) past. Could it catch Shields like it did Webb?

Shields might get injured this season and never pitch again. He might start the year 0-11 with a 9.49 ERA and be unconditionally released. He also could pitch for 10 more years, winning 5 Cy Young Awards and three world championships! I bet he lands somewhere between all those extremes.

But workhorses are workhorses, until they’re not. Every-fifth-day guys throw every fifth day, until they don’t. Age catches up to some guys, injuries to others, ineffectiveness, poor training, and other assorted issues to the rest. A combination of these factors could catch up to Shields this season, or he could avoid it until he turns 42. Nobody knows!

Shields and Derek Norris [Image via @azcsports]

There are few guarantees in baseball, and absolutely zero guarantees with pitchers (remember Josh Johnson, Padres fans?). In the past, Shields has been durable and reliable and incredible. But much like the stock market, past success is no guarantee of future performance. And the track record of big contracts dropped on elite starting pitchers isn’t good.

And about those shoulder histories. Shoulders are not like elbows. In an era when pitches are resuming careers after multiple Tommy John surgeries, shoulder problems do not have the same recovery odds. As much as sports medicine has advanced, even very minor shoulder discomfort can derail a season, or in Webb’s extreme case, a career.

This argument is completely speculative, of course. Some of you will contend Webb and Shields have nothing in common; others may find this interesting enough to warrant a second thought. The comparison isn’t perfect (Shields has already appeared in more games, more years, and more innings that Webb ever did), but I think it’s interesting to consider the career arcs of talented (and expensive) starting pitchers. Maybe Shields parallels Webb, or maybe Hudson, or maybe he’ll fall somewhere in between.

This might all be irrelevant if Shields throws 1,000 more innings with a Hudson-like streak of durability, luck, and effectiveness. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to compare Webb and Shields – thus far, two guys with very similar careers. Big contracts for starting pitchers are huge gambles, but now all the Padres can do is surround Shields with other pitchers (which they’ve done) so if his durability runs out, they aren’t in the worst position.

Addendum: From Shields’ Baseball Reference page, he and Webb are next to each other on the EloRater (with J.R. Richard! Like Webb, his career ended at 30, but for different reasons):

Here’s a run down of how the EloRater works.

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