Dodgers Breakout And Regression Candidates
- Updated: March 17, 2015
It may not be as a Dodger, but Ethier could have a big year in 2015 (Image via Twitter)
With Spring Training in full swing and Opening Day a few weeks away, it’s the perfect time to profile some breakout and regression candidates for the Dodgers in 2015.
Breakout
Andre Ethier. Of course, this breakout may not came as a member of the Dodgers (at least not for the full year), but Ethier had a down year in 2014 and would go a long way to re-establishing his trade value for the club by hitting well in whatever opportunities he can get in 2015.
His credentials aren’t a question; he’s a career .285/.359/.462 hitter with 145 home runs and a 121 OPS+ across 4,916 plate appearances. He’s earned a Silver Slugger, two Gold Gloves, and two All Star Game appearances, and while he will turn 33 just after Opening Day, having a breakout year from the get-go would help his trade value and, in turn, help the Dodgers get something in return for him while developing Joc Pederson.
Paco Rodriguez. After having a solid 2012 with a very small sample size (just 6.2 innings pitched across 11 appearances), Rodriguez broke out in full in 2013, recording a 2.32 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings across 76 appearances. In 2014, though, he was somewhat of a forgotten man as his numbers dropped (throwing in just 19 games, with a 3.86 ERA and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings) while spending time in AAA and missing more time with an injury.
However, his FIP in 2014 (2.92) shows he pitched better than his numbers indicate, and after refining his delivery this offseason, the 23-year old could find his 2013 magic again and be an integral piece to the bullpen in 2015 and beyond.
It’d be difficult for League to have a comparable year to his 2014 (Image via Twitter)
Regression
Scott Van Slyke. Van Slyke broke out with great power and slash lines last year, recording 13 doubles, 11 home runs, and a .297/.386/.524 slash in 246 PAs across 98 games, the most he’d thus far played in his big league career, and well above his three-year averages. In fact, it’s even above his .295/.371/.487 career minor league slash line across 3,196 PAs (which is also very good).
If he can re-produce 2014’s numbers in 2015, he’ll be a phenomenal fourth outfielder, but it’ll be a feat to hit that well (with that much power) again this season. His regression may be more a product of it being difficult to repeat phenomenal numbers from the previous year, rather than a problem with his game, but it’d be surprising to see him repeat 2014’s slash line this year.
Brandon League. Save for 2011 when he was an All Star closer with the Mariners, League enjoyed one of the best full seasons of his career in 2014 recording a 2.57 ERA and a 136 ERA+ across 63 games (63 innings) for the Dodgers. And while he’s on the wrong side of 30, he gave up alcohol during the season last year, which he credited with giving him more energy and more stamina late in the year, which could work in his favor as he ages.
However, some of his secondary numbers are troubling and possibly point to a regression in 2015: his 3.40 FIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, indicating he may have benefitted from some luck last year. He doesn’t miss bats, and he only struck out 5.4 batters per nine innings in 2014 (compared to 6.3 per nine across his career). He also gave up more hits per nine innings (9.3) than his career number and allowed more base runners (1.46 WHIP), indicating good fortune propelled his strong season. Expect a regression in 2015.
Stay with us at Calisportsnews.com as we will keep you up-to-date on all things Los Angeles Dodgers and the rest of the LA sports teams! All Cali, All the time!
Related Posts
About Bobby DeMuro
