Crazy Prediction: Juan Nicasio Will Have A Breakout Year In Relief

By Bobby DeMuro
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Updated: March 14, 2015

In November, the Rockies designated Juan Nicasio for assignment to clear space on their 40-man roster, and four days later traded him to the Dodgers for minor leaguer Noel Cuevas. Considering Cuevas hit just .231/.285/.351 at AA Chattanooga in 2014, the Rockies obviously didn’t think much of Nicasio. But for the Dodgers, he’s a hidden gem.

Nicasio’s career wouldn’t immediately suggest a hidden gem: a 21-22 record, belied by a 5.03 ERA, 420 hits allowed in 381 innings, a 1.457 WHIP and an ERA+ of 89. Granted, he’s been pitching in Coors Field, but Nicasio’s history certainly doesn’t set him apart.

However, after my post about Erik Bedard, a Dodger fan on Twitter had me look twice at Nicasio, who has value if the Dodgers use him properly.

This is how Juan Nicasio does each time through an opposing lineup. The first time through, hitters slash .250/.321/.433; Nicasio shows a 22.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Those aren’t Cy Young Award-worthy stats, but it’s respectable enough.

As the lineup turns over, though, the jig is up. The second time (.304/.355/.498) and third time (.299/.365/.484), as hitters became familiar with Nicasio, they hit him hard. His strikeout rate (15.4% and 12.7%, respectively) declines, too, indicating his stuff is figured out pretty quickly. That’s not unique to Nicasio; it happens to virtually every pitcher to one degree or another.

But Nicasio is respectable enough the first time through a lineup, mitigates walks, and misses bats enough to be intriguing as a reliever. The Rockies thought enough of that to have him throw 19 games in relief last year; opponents hit .227/.275/.400 in 80 plate appearances. Nicasio struck out 21.3% of batters he faced in relief and walked only 6.3%. A small sample size for sure, but his relief numbers were even better than his first time through a lineup as a starter.

And this is Juan Nicasio’s pitch selection. He basically throws two pitches: a fastball 72.2% of the time that averages 92.7 MPH, and an 83.6 MPH slider he throws 21% of the time. He’s shown a changeup in the past, but its use declined to just 5.2% in 2014. As a reliever, he should scrap it except in certain situations against left-handed hitters.

Remember: Nicasio’s 92.7 MPH average fastball velocity came across 69 starts and 19 relief appearances. He’ll likely throw significantly harder in short stints if he’s used exclusively in relief, possibly allowing an increased strikeout rate and better peripheral numbers. Couple that with his 44.6% groundball rate, and you’ve got an interesting arm in the bullpen.

Very few starting pitchers can be effective with only two pitches; Nicasio’s career has shown he cannot survive in the rotation by throwing a fastball-slider combination up to 95% of the time as he did in 2014. But his velocity and pitch offerings, combined with his numbers the first time through a lineup, indicate he’d profile well as a reliever.

The Dodgers are without Kenley Jansen and they need an interim closer until Jansen returns. That closer will probably not be Nicasio; he gets hit too hard to slam the door in the ninth (hitters have slashed .279/.341/.465 against him in his career) and shouldn’t be considered for a late-inning role.

But, as a middle relief bridge from the starters to Chris Hatcher, Jansen, or others, Nicasio will be a solid member of the bullpen. Considering the Dodgers acquired him for a light-hitting AA outfielder, and Nicasio is making less than $2.5 million this year, he’s a steal in relief. He strikes out a lot more people than he walks, he has a strong arm with two potential power pitches, and he’s clearly better seeing hitters just one time.

As much as a middle reliever can have a “breakout year,” Nicasio’s fastball-slider combination (while only facing hitters once!) will impress in 2015 and re-invigorate his career out of the bullpen. As with Bedard, if Nicasio starts for the Dodgers, something went very wrong. But if they keep him in the bullpen and play to his strengths on pitch and lineup splits, Nicasio will be a diamond in the rough.

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