CaliSports News Pacific Division Predictions

By Jeff Duarte
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Updated: October 5, 2015

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Phil Loos

Pacific Division

1st – Anaheim Ducks (102 points)

Here’s a key stat to remember: the Ducks lost 1 game – ONE! – all year in regulation games decided by one goal. If you think the Ducks have some kind of “clutch” factor, then by all means, bet they’ll do it again. Studies show that records in 1 goal games are flukey and rarely repeatable. I’m going to go ahead and say that doesn’t happen again.

As far as their offseason moves go, the Ducks had an offseason that I’d call a mixed bag. Getting Hagelin was probably their best move. I think Bieksa more than adequately replaces Beauchemin, losing Wisniewski won’t hurt much, and getting Chris Stewart for cheap was a good gamble. But for some reason people seem to be overlooking the losses of 3 key, underrated contributors who all had a positive effect on the play of their teammates: Emerson Etem, Kyle Palmieri and Matt Beleskey. Hagelin will help offset some of this loss, but Beleskey, despite his career year and unsustainable shooting percentage, is a bigger loss than people might realize. Still, the Ducks are strong on defense and in-goal, and as always, have one of the league’s best 1-2 combos in Getzlaf-Perry, but I’m not as enamored of their offensive depth as many others seem to be. They’re still a powerhouse and a primary contender for the cup, but I think they’ll take a small step back in the regular season and win the division by a hair.

2nd – Los Angeles Kings (100 points)

Here are two key stats to remember:

1-7

2-8

Those are the Los Angeles Kings’ 2014-15 records in overtime and shootout respectively. That’s a combined 3-15. If the Kings had been league average in the shootout at 5-5, they’d have made the playoffs and we may be talking about whether they could win 3 consecutive cups. Who knows? The bottom line is that 3-15 is HISTORICALLY bad, and, as much as it’s not fun for narratives, this is almost entirely due to bad luck. Shootouts, it turns out, are basically a coin flip. In overtime, the Kings had a PDO of 91, which also was extremely bad luck. So again, if the Kings had been merely average in the shootout and overtime, they would have had 6 more points (101), and would have owned the tiebreaker against Vancouver, and would have pushed the Flames out of the playoffs and would have played Winnipeg in the first round. Ahh, what if. My guess is their luck isn’t historically bad again.

As far as their offseason moves are concerned, a pessimist would look at the Kings and say, “They lost 5 key pieces to their 2014 championship team in Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll, Mike Richards, Robyn Regehr, and Martin Jones. How could they possibly be better next year?” An optimist would say, “An already dominant possession team got rid of 3 of their oldest and worst possession players – Stoll, Richards and Regehr – in one fell swoop. How could they possibly be worse next year?” I lean more towards the latter group, but even my rosy glasses can acknowledge that while replacing Stoll, Richards and Regehr with Shore, Weal and Ehrhoff is almost certainly an upgrade, there are still a lot of question marks with those 3 players. But here’s the thing – because this team has gone to 3 Western Conference Finals and won 2 cups in the past 4 years, people forget that this is still a really young team with room to grow. Just look at the ages of their starters:

Lucic (27) – Kopitar (28) – Gaborik (33)

Pearson (23) – Carter (30) – Toffoli (23)

King (26) – Shore (22) – Brown (30)

Clifford (24) – Lewis (28) – Weal (23)

Muzzin (26) – Doughty (25)

McNabb (24) – Ehrhoff (33)

Martinez (28) – Greene (32)

Quick (29)

Every single player is 30 or younger except Greene, Gaborik and Ehrhoff. Most of these players are in their prime years.

Overall then, I think this team is slightly better than last year’s team, and a full summer off with no playoffs should mean the 2015 league leaders in the holy grail of possession stats (FenClose For %) will be well rested and motivated in 2016. If the Kings get “good” Jon Quick for a full year, watch out.

3rd – San Jose Sharks (94 points)

The reports of their demise has been greatly exaggerated. Yes, they missed the playoffs, but they were not the train wreck many anticipated. Joe Thornton is apparently an ageless wonder, and Pavelski is an under-appreciated superstar. As long as this team still has Thornton, Pavelski, Burns, Vlasic, Marleau, Hertl, Nieto and Couture, they will remain at least respectable. Replacing Niemi with Jones is an interesting move, but isn’t one that I think makes a huge difference this year. Niemi has always been solid if not spectacular, but Jones, while talented, is a big question mark. I think Jones plays well and keeps the starting gig over Stalock, but that his play isn’t significantly better than Niemi’s. Joel Ward and Paul Martin are solid additions, but even more important than that is the addition by subtraction moves of letting Scott, Hannan and Irwin walk out the door. I think this team got a little better this offseason and should once again be on the postseason bubble, but their aging core means it’s now or never. If they have a rocky start, they could blow it all up and this projection could be way off. I don’t think that happens.

4th – Calgary Flames (92 points)

This is a tough team to peg, because while I think they got much better this offseason, their successful year last year was all smoke and mirrors. They were one of the worst possession teams in the league last year and managed to squeak in to the playoffs on some outlandish shooting percentages and unsustainable goaltending (Ramo, ahem). Still, a defensive core of Hamilton-Giordano-Brodie is one of the league’s best, and will serve as the backbone of this team for years to come. Here’s my bold prediction: I think everyone wonders “what’s wrong with the Flames?” because they don’t improve on their standings position, while not even realizing they’ve actually improved on the ice. They’re my surprise pick to improve their play but fall in the standings and miss the playoffs.

5th – Canucks (86 points)

Old. Old, old, old. This team is OLD. How much longer can they hold on to respectability? The Sedins are amazing, but they’re not aliens (as far as I know) and at age 35, I have to think we start seeing some decline. Ryan Miller hasn’t been good in years, and is also 35. Vrbata and Burrows are 34. Yeesh, all of their top talent is way past their primes. Their depth has been depleted and there aren’t any hot-shot prospects to save them. I think this team is an obvious candidate to take a major step back this year. If their AARP members all stay healthy, they could squeak in the playoffs again, but when Brandon Sutter – a borderline 3rd line center – is your big addition, it’s not a great sign. This team needs to blow it up, and I think we’ll see them do just that at the trade deadline.

6th – Oilers (82 points)

The Oilers, finally, seem to be doing things right. I know, it’s weird, right? Landing their 1 billionth #1 pick and getting Connor McDavid was all luck, but signing Andrej Sekera, trading for Cam Talbot and getting a competent coach in Todd McLellan were all good moves that will pay immediate dividends. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Outside of Sekera, their defense is still shaky, and under-appreciated players like David Perron and Jeff Petry were flipped at the trade deadline last year. Still, at some point, talent will win out, and Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, are all on the upswing of their careers. It remains to be seen how well the talented parts fit together, and while I think they end up flipping one of their forwards (Yakupov would be my guess) for some defensive help, I think this is the year they take a step forward. I have even heard some whispers of playoffs, but let’s not forget that this team finished with 62 points last year. A 35 point jump is probably out of the question.

7th – Coyotes (56 points)

This is a very bad team. Like, REALLY bad. They are more or less the same team that finished with 56 points last year. Yikes. They have some nice young prospects and a bright future, but that future is not now. Mike Smith is somehow still their starting goalie (?!) after a train wreck 2015. He is still living on the fumes of a brilliant 2011-2012 season, but I think this is his last stand in Arizona. Their roster is oddly constructed with aging veterans and young unproven prospects. If this team can draw 7,000 fans per game, it’ll be a minor miracle.