Are Jake Muzzin’s Days as a King Numbered?
- Updated: January 9, 2017
During an episode of LA Kings Road Talk Radio a few weeks ago, I was asked by the host of the show, Scott “The Hipcheck” Cahill if the Los Angeles Kings should protect or expose defenseman Jake Muzzin for the upcoming NHL expansion draft for the Vegas Golden Knights. It was a great question and some serious food for thought, as I have not stopped thinking about it since it was first brought up. As the days (and games) go by, the more and more I keep thinking, debating and dwelling about it, the more it is starting to dawn on me of what my final answer is. I now fully believe that Jake Muzzin’s days as a LA King are numbered, and here’s why.
(photo credit to kings.nhl.com)
The NHL expansion draft for the newly founded Vegas Golden Knights will be taking place this year from June 18 to June 20th, and Vegas will have the opportunity to choose one player from each NHL team to fill out its 30 man roster. Every NHL team will have a choice of protecting, either seven of their current forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters total, (which can be forwards and/or defensemen) and one goalie.
So LA Kings’ general manager Dean Lombardi and company have some tough choices to make by the end of this 2016-17 season. They have to decide which skaters and which goalie they are going to have to protect, and which ones to expose, with the reality that they will be losing one of them.
Let’s say that Lombardi has decided that the Kings are going to protect 3 defensemen, (along with 7 forwards and a goalie, which would no doubt be Jonathan Quick). It is pretty much a guaranteed lock that Doughty will be the first defenseman protected, (unless Lombardi somehow ends up losing his mind and wants to blow up the whole team, but that’s not going to happen so Doughty is safe). I believe the second protected D-man will be Alec Martinez, who’s results speak for himself for not just this year, but last year as well. (Remember how badly the Kings’ defense fell apart last year against San Jose in the playoffs when Martinez got hurt? Yeah, there is no coincidence there. He is THAT important to the Kings’ defensive core, plus he’s second in points behind Jeff Carter so far this season, so he’s important offensively too). This is of course assuming that Lombardi doesn’t trade Martinez OR Muzzin to Colorado for their Captain Gabriel Landeskog or speedy forward Matt Duchene as the latest round of trade rumors are indicating.
So that leaves the third and final spot. Many of you might already be thinking that maybe that spot should go to Muzzin. That was my original reaction too when I was first asked that question, but now I don’t think it will be. I believe that third spot will be saved for Derek Forbort instead.
(photo credit to nhl.com)
Think about it. Muzzin is in his prime at 27 years old and will be 28 by the time the expansion draft arrives. Forbort is a bit younger at 24, but here’s the key, he also a lot cheaper. It is no secret that the Kings are heavily strapped by the salary cap. Muzzin has an annual salary cap hit of $4 million a year until the end of 2020 season. Forbort’s hit is only a lowly $650,000 until 2019. If Muzzin is taken by Vegas, it would create an approximate $3 and a half million of much-needed cap space for the Kings that they could use to give either Tyler Toffoli or Tanner Pearson a raise once their current contracts run out in July. With some intelligent wheeling and dealing by Lombardi, that cap space could also be used to bring in some other assets that could help out the team. With Forbort coming to his own this season thanks to the mentoring of Drew Doughty, Forbort is showing that he can be a strong asset and force for the Kings for years to come and for a cheaper price and with less defensive lapses, (#Muzzkill).
Now I know some of you are saying, wait, hold on a minute, but what if Lombardi decides to go with the eight skaters and 1 goalie protected scenario instead, then Jake Muzzin would be safe right? I would still have the same answer and say that it changes nothing. If Lombardi decides to protect four defensemen instead, it would go to either Brayden McNabb or Kevin Gravel for the same reasons that I had for Forbort. McNabb had a terrible 2015-16 season and was injured for most of this season but there is still hope that the 25-year-old will improve, while also being cheaper to keep than Muzzin would be with a $1.25 million cap hit. If it’s Gravel, then he is even cheaper with a $667,500 cap hit and his raise by the end of the season will not that expensive for the Kings.
Yes, both Forbort and Gravel are prone to rookie mistakes, but both have shown some great promise that they can effectively hang in the NHL with the main roster and are showing major improvements with their game as this roller coaster season chugs along and they adapt to Darryl Sutter’s progressive yet stifling defensive system. They both have a huge upside where Muzzin is now quite set and settled with his ways, for better or worse. Forbort, Gravel and McNabb at this point in time cannot contribute the same way the veteran Muzzin can contribute, but give it some time and they will. (Well, at least Forbort and Gravel possibly can in my opinion. The jury is still out on McNabb). Either way, it still leaves Jake Muzzin out in the cold, (or as cold as one could possibly get in the desert state of Nevada … or Colorado).
(photo credit to nhl.com)
I am certain that the Kings are also going to leave Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik exposed as well and I know that most Kings’ fans are hoping that Vegas does the Kings a solid by taking Brown and his 5 year remaining cap hit of $5,875,000, or Gaborik’s 4 year remaining $4,875,000 hit off of the Kings’ aching back, which would create even more needed cap space than taking Jake Muzzin would. It would be a best case scenario for the Kings. The only thing is, it wouldn’t be a best case scenario for the Golden Knights. I have it under great and trusted authority that Vegas GM George McPhee will NOT be selecting any under achieving player(s) with an expensive long-term contract. Vegas is going to be avoiding them like the plague, so it looks like Brown and Gaborik and their suffocating contracts are here to stay and that’s why I believe if he (or Martinez) isn’t traded away by the end of this season, Jake Muzzin will be the one to go in the draft.
(photo credit to woodstock sentinel review)
Vegas needs to select 30 players in total, one each from every NHL team, and picking up a player of Muzzin’s caliber would be very beneficial to the expansion club. Muzzin is currently in his prime and has playoff, Stanley Cup and international experience and success.
(photo credit to sportsnet.ca)
He can play offensively and defensively, whether 5 on 5, or on the power-play and penalty kill and doesn’t have an overly expensive contract. When focused, he is also very good at driving the puck into the offensive zone and preventing opponents from getting a quality shot at the the Kings’ net. If exposed, Vegas would snatch him up in a heartbeat, while the Kings would have freed up some space, lost a veteran that is still prone to making rookie mistakes with many defensive lapses on a regular basis, (even though Jake Muzzin is still a analytical stat darling to those with black belts in advanced hockey stats), and would have younger defensive talent that they are and can continue to mold to whatever they want and need. It would be a win-win scenario for both teams.
So do you think I’m right? Am I wrong? Who do you think the Kings are going to protect and expose in the upcoming NHL expansion draft? Do you think that Muzzin and/or Martinez are going to be traded to Colorado or somewhere else before the expansion draft even happens???
Let us know in the comments below!
Go Kings Go!!!
*Just for the record, if the Kings do trade Martinez or Muzzin, who both have a $4 million annual salary cap hit to Colorado for either Landeskog or Duchene, the Kings will STILL be in salary cap hell as both of those players have even more expensive contracts then “Muzz” and “Marty” do. Landeskog has an AAV hit of $5,571,429 until 2022 and Duchene’s is $6,000,000 until 2019. Ouch.
Stay with us at Calisportsnews.com as we will keep you up-to-date on all things Los Angeles Kings and the rest of the LA sports teams! All Cali, all the time!
Related Posts
7 Comments
About Jeff Duarte
Angry Soviet
January 10, 2017 at 10:12 am
Yep I keep telling everyone who thinks Brown is for sure gone they’re out of their minds! No way Vegas takes him or Gabs with the way they’ve played in in Gabs case how many games missed due to “injury” last couple of years and those contracts! Kings are in for a long road to get back to Stanley Cup caliber!
NedRyerson1957
January 10, 2017 at 10:45 am
Read the draft rules. They have to take on some salary.
Peter Greenlaw
January 28, 2017 at 11:50 am
If the Kings were to give LV some incentive to take Brown or Gaborik, like a prospect and a 1st round pick, then you may see LV select them. If not there is no chance. They would rather take an expensive contact like Fleury that provides some value or an expensive contract that expires at the end of the year if they need to take on more salary.
Jeff Duarte
January 10, 2017 at 11:48 am
Hey AS, thank you for reading and I agree. It’s in the best interest of the Kings if Vegas takes either Brown or Gaborik and their contracts with them but I don’t see it happening.
NedRyerson1957
January 10, 2017 at 10:43 am
You are forgetting that the rules state they must take on a certain amount of salary. They can’t just draft young and cheap. A couple of large salaries will be added to the mix.
As for not protecting Muzzin, that’s just nuts. Why would you not at least trade him and get something back? He’s a highly sought after 1-2 defenseman.
Jeff Duarte
January 10, 2017 at 11:09 am
Hey Ned, thanks for reading.
Large salaries yes. But Vegas is not interested in selecting players past their prime with expensive long term contracts, (Brown, Gaborik). Vegas GM McPhee himself has said as much when he guested on the Vegas Hockey Podcast.
As for Muzzin, I have no doubt that Lombardi will try his best to get something in return but time is running out quickly as the draft is already looming large in the background. You cannot protect everyone so it’s inevitable that someone talented is going to be exposed and possibly lost if a trade wasn’t workable before the deadline. Lombardi already struck out twice with the Lucic and Sekera trades and would need this next trade, whether it’s Muzzin or whomever to be a homerun that will not bury them further in salary cap hell, deplete their pipeline any further than it already has been or to acquire a player that will only be a rental and then disappear like with Lucic and Sekera.
Todd
January 27, 2017 at 11:27 am
Gravel is exempt from the draft