Alex Guerrero And The Padres: A Match Made In Heaven
- Updated: March 5, 2015
Alex Guerrero is adamant he wants to be in the big leagues this season. So adamant, in fact, that it’s conceivable he’d withhold consent on any demotion to AAA and have to be traded or released if he can’t earn a roster spot.
Because Justin Turner (good bat) and Darwin Barney (good glove) likely have the inside track on backup jobs, and Adrian Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe will undoubtedly start across the infield, Guerrero’s days as a Dodger may end rather soon.
Assuming this status quo holds for Opening Day, the Dodgers will be forced to deal Guerrero, or lose him for nothing. Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has pointed out that Guerrero doesn’t just have that play-me-or-cut-me-loose provision in his contract this year; he can also opt out after this season, making him a very unattractive trade piece in light of his contract and (lack of) big league experience.
So let’s play baseball executive: where could Guerrero land? The options are far from certain, but… how about San Diego?
The Dodgers have an excess infielder, while the Padres desperately need help around the horn. With news that Will Middlebrooks might play some first base this season, and the fact that Guerrero may profile as a corner infielder, perhaps he’s worth a shot in San Diego to play third base in addition to first and second.
Obviously, the Dodgers and Padres aren’t averse to doing deals; each team has made moves in the division recently and, oh yeah, they did that Matt Kemp thing together this winter. Presumably, the lines of communication are open.
The Dodgers have a wonderful front end of their starting rotation, but slots four and five could fall off quickly, considering the fragility of Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Erik Bedard, and Brandon Beachy. In addition, with Kenley Jansen out for at least the first month of the season, the back-end of the bullpen might need a push.
Guerrero isn’t worth a starter like Ian Kennedy, or a reliever like Joaquin Benoit, so any deal wouldn’t be major (assuming there aren’t other players involved). But the Padres are as deep on the mound as they are shallow in the infield, and Guerrero would fill that infield need. A return for the Dodgers could come in the form of eating his contract and getting a young starter (Robbie Erlin, maybe?), or a bullpen arm (Dale Thayer, perhaps).
Obviously the potential players in return are purely speculative, and Guerrero’s salary and contract particulars pose a wild card to any deal. The Dodgers may not get much in return for him. But they’ve proven themselves happy to eat money on a departing player if they can get a return that helps them win immediately, so covering part of Guerrero’s contract after a trade isn’t inconceivable.
More than that, this deal would cover surpluses and needs for both clubs; the Padres have an abundance of pitching while needing an offensive threat on the infield, and the Dodgers have too many infielders but could use a back-end bullpen arm, or another starter.
Returning to FanGraphs, Cameron argues Guerrero would fit with the Angels. Considering the Angels’ black hole at second base, that’s true. To me, the Padres present a viable option for Guerrero to land. Either way, he might not have to move very far once he’s traded.
All this might be irrelevant if Guerrero earns a spot with the Dodgers, but if he doesn’t, he must be traded; his $28 million contract is far too much to swallow without getting a return. And if a trade is the best option, the Dodgers might find their most willing partner in a front office they’ve already worked with this winter.
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