Surprising Start For Will Middlebrooks Or Not?
- Updated: April 21, 2015
(Picture via Twitter User @JeffSanders_UT)
It’s been so far so good for the new members of the San Diego Padres. Justin Upton and Matt Kemp are hitting well, Wil Myers is playing solid defense in center field, and James Shields, as advertised, has provided leadership on and off the field. None of that is too surprising, although there were some doubts about Myers being able to handle center field. What is more surprising is the good start Will Middlebrooks has enjoyed. But maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise at all.
After a disappointing 2014 season in which spent time in the minors to work on his swing, and hit for a paltry .191 batting average in 63 major league games with the Red Sox, Will Middlebrooks was traded to the Padres for Ryan Hanigan. A disappointing end to his time in Boston, especially considering the promise he showed as a rookie when he hit .288 in 2012, and had Red Sox Nation calling for him to take over third base from fan favorite Kevin Youkilis. He failed to replicate that success in his 2nd year and his batting average dropped to .227, but he did hit 17 home runs. Regression for a second year player isn’t uncommon, and the Red Sox maintained belief in Middlebrooks. As young players begin their big league career, scouting reports against them become more detailed, and young hitters will see pitches they struggle against more often than they ever saw in the minors. Some hitters don’t have the talent to adjust and end up having ordinary careers in which they never live up to their initial success or the hype that surrounded them as a prospect. A year ago in a Boston Globe article, David Ortiz referenced that Middlebrooks needed to fix some things, but that he”has unbelievable talent”, and that he isn’t “some ordinary player”.
So what happened that led to Middlebrooks having such a bad 2014? A broken wrist and finger happened, basically, causing his timing and bat speed to not be 100%. For a young slugger trying to adjust to major league pitchers who prey on any weakness, something like that is bound to have a major impact, and Middlebrooks has said as much when asked about the injuries he endured last season.
Based on his early performances in 2015, he looks to have his timing and bat speed back on track. During the 10-2 shellacking of the San Francisco Giants he made solid contact on a double right back up the middle that caused the ball to “knuckle” through the air into the outfield. Padres TV commentator Mark Grant mentioned on the broadcast that hitting a ball so well that it knuckles is a great indicator that all parts of a hitters swing are working. It wasn’t a home run, but it was excellent contact and an RBI double. Speaking of home runs, Will Middlebrooks now has 3 for the young season, 2 of them to the opposite field. His on base percentage for 2015 through Sunday is.269, which isn’t particularly good, but his slugging percentage is .480, and that is much better. He will always strikeout too much, and therefore will struggle to put up a top-level on base percentage but as his opposite field homers and slugging percentage indicate, his power is real and will play in games when he’s healthy and his timing is good.
So why did the Red Sox bail so quickly on a guy that garnered such high praise from Big Papi himself? The Red Sox had just signed Pablo Sandoval, a player the Padres pursued heavily, which made Will Middlebrooks a surplus to requirements. The Sox liked Hanigan because of his experience, and felt he could help the development of young catcher Christian Vazquez. So it wasn’t all down to the struggles Middlebrooks was going through. And his struggles were significant. Being sent back to minor leagues as a 3rd year player is certainly a red flag that the Red Sox may have had a bust on their hands. Being a big market team in perpetual win now mode means the Red Sox had less motivation to be patient and more ability to acquire a proven commodity like Pablo Sandoval, and so Middlebrooks was suddenly available for a cheap price. Enter A.J. Preller, the Rock Star GM who was at the time right in the middle of his drastic rebuild of the Padres. Targeting power hitters and needing an affordable third baseman, Middlebrooks was Preller’s guy. So far Preller is looking pretty smart for buying low on Middlebrooks, and even though he may not reach the hitting potential some expected of him when he was ranked as the Red Sox top prospect in 2012, Middlebrooks has certainly provided value with his bat so far for the Padres.
His value isn’t limited to his bat, as he has the tools necessary to provide solid defensive production at third base. A pitcher and quarterback in high school, his arm is particularly impressive. During the game in which uber prospect third baseman Kris Bryant made his Chicago Cubs debut against San Diego, it was the new Padres third baseman coming up with highlight reel plays. His 2 run home run tied the game early on, and in the 6th inning he showed off his glove and his strong-arm, throwing out Starlin Castro at first when it looked certain Castro would get a base hit. You can watch that play, here. It was a close call that was upheld after being reviewed, and it took the spectacular effort from Middlebrooks to even make it a close call.
It’s his combination of power and third base defense that makes Will Middlebrooks valuable. In the post steroid era the players that are able to generate a lot of power are legitimately large human beings, and legitimately large human beings with the agility to provide above average defense at the hot corner just don’t come around very often. As a result some of the most promising power hitting third basemen in the minor leagues are at risk of “outgrowing” the position, and not being able to provide the kind of defense Middlebrooks can provide.
Defensively capable third basemen with power are becoming rarer, and Middlebrooks is a young one potentially on the verge of an offensive breakout. As David Ortiz probably already knows, we shouldn’t be all that surprised.
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