4 Kings Playing Better than You Think

Dustin Brown

Much has already been written about Brown’s scoring troubles. Jewels from the Crown covered it. Jason Lewis at HockeyBuzz covered it. I won’t rehash their already excellent pieces, so let me give you the highlights.

Dustin Brown is the epitome of the Kings frustrating high shot quantity/low goal output combo. He has been on the of the Kings’ best possession players (see WOWY chart above) and has overall been a positive influence on his teammates (see below).

He not only leads the Kings in shots on goal, but his 12.25 SOG/60 is 33% better than second place Jeff Carter (9.15 SOG/60). Lots of shots on goal usually means lots of goals. Dustin Brown does not have lots of goals. In fact, Dustin Brown has zero goals. This is crazy… sort of. Brown should probably have a few more goals to his credit as there’s obviously no way his true shooting talent is 0%. And yet we also shouldn’t be terribly surprised that his shot volume is not turning into goals, because the shot quality has declined over the past few years. He is not only shooting from farther out (around 35 feet away, on average now, vs. 29 feet away on average when he was scoring), but he’s also shooting more from the sides, and less from the slot.

There are some other reasons we should be concerned too. For one, he’s been playing with Kopitar on the “top” line. (It’s still that in theory, but Carter’s line is the top line in reality) He’s also 3rd on the team in power play time on ice. Both of these should mean he has plenty of opportunities for goals and assists, but they have not come.

But there are also some major things working against him. First, and most obviously, his 0% shooting percentage is not going to last. No matter the shot quality, with 49 shots on goal, that’s just crazy. He will score some goals, and soon. Second, he has 5 assists on the season, and all of them are primary assists. This is a good sign, but because none of them are secondary assists, and we know secondary assists are random, we can say with some certainty that he’s been unlucky in the assist total department. Third, during 5v5 play, the Kings are shooting 3.74% with him on the ice. This has also hurt him in the assists department. And finally, I don’t think Sutter is doing Brown or the Kings any favors by pairing him with Kopitar. If I were Sutter, I would consider moving him away from Kopitar, and pairing him with Shore again. It’s a small sample size, but the two were killing it together. (see the 21+23 way up there)

Final verdict: cut him a little slack. He is undoubtedly suffering from bad luck. He’s perhaps suffering from less-than-ideal usage. But he also needs to create his own luck and try to find a way to take more dangerous shots. “Shot mentality” is a good thing, but Brown takes it a step too far and could afford to trade some quantity for some quality.  Whether Brown still has the playmaking ability to find better quality shots is questionable, but his stat line of 0 goals and 5 assists belies how well he’s played overall.