2016-17 NHL Pacific Division Predictions

Phil Loos

I get a lot of things wrong in life, but I actually didn’t do half-bad predicting last year’s Pacific Division standings. I nailed the 3 teams that would make the playoffs, and got pretty close with placing the rest, so let’s see if I can prove it wasn’t a fluke.

• San Jose Sharks

Last year, most of my esteemed colleagues here at CSN predicted demise for San Jose. I was the only one to have them making the playoffs, as I just couldn’t see a significant drop off, and hey, I was right! Any team that still has Jumbo Joe, Pavelski, Burns and Vlasic is a serious threat. They will remain so again this year. Their top guys are among the best in the league, but they have also quietly filled in the gaps around these core players very successfully. The depth is intriguing and Donskoi and Hertl are both emerging stars. They control play well, and get an amazingly high percentage of the high-danger scoring chances every game. That being said, this might be the last year they have a legitimate chance at the cup. Thornton and Marleau are both on the last year of their deals and are a combined 203 years old. Burns, amazingly, is already 31 years old. Pavelski’s the wrong side of 30. The window is open, but it won’t be for much longer.

• LA Kings

One thing that immediately stands out to me is just how pessimistic lots of pundits – and even Kings fans– are about their prospects this upcoming season. On one hand, I get it – they didn’t make any big splashes in the offseason (no, as much as I liked the move, Teddy Purcell doesn’t count), there aren’t any hotshot rookies coming up, and they lost Lucic – but this is still a team that has dominated the puck (adjCF%) for the last 4 seasons, has a returning Vezina finalist, Selke winner and a Norris trophy winner, and has as one of the best coaches in the league in Darryl Sutter. They’re still going to be good. In fact, if not for their questionable depth, I would have projected them to win the Pacific. But oh, that depth. Yikes. The bottom 6 for the Kings is weak, and that’s even the case when Marian Gaborik returns. The bottom D-pairing (Greene? Gilbert? Scuderi?!!) is very concerning for a team that has Cup aspirations. The hope is that some of the seasoned prospects like Dowd, Forbort, Ladue, and Shore take a big step forward this year, and while I do believe they’ll help, there are still a lot of question marks there. The good news is that the bottom 6 is the easiest to improve during the season. The bad news is the Kings have traded away almost all their assets over the past few years. They’ll be good again, but if they’re going to be elite, they will be reliant on Quick being good-Quick and on young guys in the bottom 6 making big strides in 2017.

• Anaheim Ducks

Speaking of depth problems.Eek. Once again, as is always the case when Getzlaf and Perry are still around, their top 6 is solid, but their offensive depth makes the Kings depth look positively rosy. Wagner/Richie/Raymond/Vermette/Thompson isn’t scaring anyone. The defense is again solid, returning Lindholm and Vatanen, but Bieksa isn’t who he once was and is probably replacement level at this point. Goaltending could be a strength. It could be a weakness. It’s hard to tell with the volatile, small sample size performances of Gibson and Bernier. Let’s split the difference and assume they’ll be about league average. This should be a playoff team, but for the first time in years, I don’t have the utmost confidence that they’re a playoff lock. Oh yeah, and I didn’t even mention who is behind the bench. Oof.I was already bearish on this team, but Carlyle inspires zero confidence. If I had to pick a team that is bound to disappoint, it would be this one.

• Calgary Flames

This was everyone’s darling pick last year, but I had a feeling their 2015 season was a mirage, and I picked them to finish 4th. Turns out I was right about the mirage, but even I was overly optimistic, as they finished 5th. This year, I again predict them to finish 4^th, but they’re better than last year’s squad, and I don’t think the Coyotes get 2016’s luck. If things break right for them, I could see them squeezing the Ducks out of the playoffs. The good news for the Flames is they finally addressed their perpetual goaltending tire fire by getting Elliott in net. Also, their top 3 on defense of Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie might be the best in the league. The problem is their depth on defense (Wideman, Jokipakka and Engelland) is about as bad as their top players are good. Their offense has the same problem. Gaudreau is phenomenal, and the rest of their top 6 is solid, but their depth is just horrible. I know I said it about the Kings and the Ducks, but it holds even more true for the Flames, and it might keep them from making the playoffs. However, this is a dangerous team on the rise, who can finally not have to worry about overcoming disastrous goaltending performance. The strength of the Central might keep them from snagging a wildcard spot, but they’ll be in the hunt.

• Edmonton Oilers

Any preview needs to start with the most exciting player in the league, Connor McDavid. He alone gives this team a shot at the playoffs. But man, how scary would this team be if it hadn’t traded away Taylor Hall? Or if they had boosted Yakupov’s value next to McDavid before shipping him off for a prospect and a pick? Adam Larsson is a borderline top 4 defenseman, but you just don’t trade talent like Hall for a relatively easily replaceable Larsson, and you don’t sell low on an asset like they did with Yakupov. Anyway, this team is scary talented, and assuming the perennially underrated Versteeg makes the team, their forward group will be dangerous. Like the Flames, they finally have stability in net with Cam Talbot, but unlike the Flames, the weakness will likely be the defense… again. Former King Andrej Sekera and Oscar Klefbom are both good, but not good enough to make up for an underwhelming bottom 4 of Davidson, Larsson, Fayne and Nurse. Perhaps this is the year Larsson puts it all together, but I don’t put a ton of stock in “perhaps.” I could easily see this team pushing for a playoff spot should McDavid go supernova or the other young guys like Eberle, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins taking steps forward, but I think they will wait one more year before ending their 10 year playoff drought. Assuming their ownership doesn’t do something colossally stupid (maybe not a great assumption), I think this is the last year they’re on the outside looking in.

• Arizona Coyotes

This was the only team that totally screwed up my predictions last year, as they hovered around a playoff spot for much of the year. I know it doesn’t seem relevant, but I have to post what I wrote about the Flames before the 2016 season:

“Here’s my bold prediction: I think everyone wonders “what’s wrong with the Flames?” because they will only see them doing poorly in the standings, while not even realizing they’ve actually improved on the ice. So they’re my surprise pick to improve their play but fall in the standings”

100% ditto for the 2017 Coyotes. Their 4^th place finish last year was a total mirage. They obviously have some great young talent in Duclair, Domi and Strome.Hanzal and Vrbata also remain criminally underrated. The problem for the Coyotes is they skated by on unsustainable good luck last year. They also don’t have any elite level talent on offense (yet) and their goaltending is maybe the worst in the league. Mike Smith is still sputtering by on the fumes of 2012 and hasn’t been good for years. The young talent could take a huge step forward this year, and their top 4 on defense are surprisingly decent, but I wouldn’t expect them to seriously threaten for a playoff spot. So this team will get better than last year, but finish further out of a playoff spot.

• Vancouver Canucks

This is the year the bottom falls out for the Canucks. Bad offense. Bad defense. Bad goaltending. Bad, bad, bad. The Sedin twins and Loui Eriksson keep them from being completely laughable, but I expect them to blow it all up mid-season. I don’t want to spend any more time writing about them because they’re so incredibly boring.

Stanley Cup Final – Nashville over Tampa Bay