Saying Farewell – Justin Williams
- Updated: July 17, 2015
On Wednesday, we took a look at what the Kings have added to their roster for the upcoming season. Today, we’ll begin a series that examines the players who will no longer be with the Kings – Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll, Mike Richards, Robyn Regehr, and Martin Jones – and how the Kings plan to replace their production.
We’ll start with the player whom the Kings (and their fans) will miss most dearly: Justin Williams. Williams is an interesting player in that he is adored not only by those in the analytics community, but because of his clutch playoff performances and decent scoring numbers, he’s also loved by old-school types. It also doesn’t hurt that he brought much more to the table than just his (quietly) excellent on-ice production. Always the consummate professional, Williams is insightful, intelligent, gritty, hard-working and seemingly universally loved by his teammates. His leadership was always evident in the way he stepped up in big moments, but it was the speech he gave the team before game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2012 that exemplifies just what he brought to that locker room. He’s the type of player that teams and their fans can be proud to call one of their own.
If that wasn’t enough to make Kings fans miss him, his on-ice performance will probably do it. Williams remains criminally underrated because he doesn’t put up huge scoring totals, so while he’s not a superstar, I don’t think it is hyperbole to say that he is a star player. For this reason, I was floored that all it took was a $6.5m/2y deal to land him, and even more floored that the Kings couldn’t find a way to bring him back at that rate. That makes Williams, probably one of the league’s top 150 players, the 262nd highest paid player in the NHL.
So what will the Kings be missing? Well, a lot. No discussion about Williams would be complete without talking about his playoff prowess, especially his game 7 heroics. His teams are 7-0 in game 7s, and he has put up 7 goals and 14 points in those games. That is just insane production. But Williams has been consistently excellent in the regular season as well.
Justin Williams, Corsi God
As you can see from the chart above, Williams’ possession statistics (Usage Adjusted Corsi For/60 minutes, Usage Adjusted Corsi Against/60 minutes and Usage Adjusted Corsi%) are all elite. In fact, in the past few years, Williams has been one of the absolute best drivers of play in the entire league. If any player epitomized the Kings – an elite possession team as a whole – it was Justin Williams. His ability to tip the ice in favor of the Kings cannot be replaced. But his production doesn’t stop there – he puts points on the board too. His goals/60 are indicative of an elite second line player.
Now, if you’re thinking his production was the result of playing with some talented teammates, well, bonus points for you, as there’s probably some truth to that.
WOWY Stats
This chart represents his WOWY (with or without you) stats, which is basically telling us how players affected the play of their teammates and vice versa. (Being at the top left of the graph is bad, bottom right is good) When we look at his WOWY stats, we see that he had a positive effect on almost all his teammates that shared the ice with him, but that he definitely struggled when he played away from Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik. He played on the 3rd line a lot with Stoll and Brown last year, and this may not have been an ideal deployment as Brown and Williams were better apart from each other, and Stoll was just an anchor that weighed everyone down. This becomes even more evident when we look at his production over the course of the season in the graphs below.
Williams 2014-2015 Time Strip
See the bottom graph? See how the gray area grows at the end of the season? That’s showing that he really started outshooting his opposition the last month or so of the season. But now look at the first graph. Who is Williams more frequently paired with at almost the exact same time of the season? Yep, Gaborik and Kopitar. So while he seems to have the ability to positively influence those he plays with, he doesn’t seem to be able to maintain his elite level of play away from elite players.
Also, there’s the pesky matter of his age and declining production. At 33, Williams’ best seasons are almost certainly behind him, and there have already been a few signs of slipping production. His first assists/60, shots/60, and points/60 were all lower than they have been in any season since his injury-plagued final years with Carolina. At 33, the probability of a bounce back season or an uptick in production is not likely.
At this point in his career, Williams is probably a very good second line player, so how are the Kings planning to replace his production? For next year, at least, with Milan Lucic. Lucic, like Williams, struggled a bit when taken away from an elite centerman (Krejci), and while he is probably a superior goal scorer at this point in his career, he is not the possession player that Williams is. However, he is 6 years younger, and less likely to have steep decline or injury, so I will call it a slight upgrade for 2015.
Williams will forever have a place in Kings lore, and I certainly will root for him as his career winds down with the Capitals. Here’s one more clip, for old time’s sake. Fare thee well, Stick. You will be missed.
Stay with us at Calisportsnews.com as we will keep you up-to-date on all things Los Angeles Kings and the rest of the LA sports teams! All Cali, All the time!
Related Posts
About Phil Loos
