Is This The End of Josh Hamilton’s Career?

By Bobby DeMuro
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Updated: February 23, 2015

Two weeks ago, Josh Hamilton had surgery to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder. Rehab and recovery was estimated then at between six and eight weeks, which would prevent him from participating in most, if not all, of Spring Training and likely sideline him for Opening Day and at least the first few games.

In and of itself, this surgery and recovery are relatively minor, especially considering the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder. And, an offseason procedure (even right before Spring Training) is preferable to, say, having this done during the season and missing more games.

That being said, though, Hamilton missed Spring Training in 2014 to a calf injury and followed up with a disappointing season where he played in only 89 games due to other injuries, hitting .263/.331/.414 with only 10 home runs in 381 plate appearances.

More telling in 2014 were his 108 strikeouts in those 381 PAs compared with just 32 walks. Hamilton had been a high strikeout guy in 2012 and 2013, but his rate jumped in 2014, striking out in 28.3% of plate appearances (compared to 25.4% and 24.8% in 2012 and 2013, respectively).

Hamilton will turn 34 during the season, and while this shoulder surgery isn’t a career ender by any means, are we seeing the beginning of the end for the insanely-gifted power hitter?

Hamilton after being drafted by the Devil Rays in 1999 [Image via @rcarpenter7]

After a redemption from first-round draft bust and a long road back from a well-chronicled drug addiction that derailed his career with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Hamilton found his place with the Reds in 2007, and then for the Rangers from 2008-2012, where he was a veritable superstar racking up 5 All-Star appearances, 3 Silver Slugger Awards and the 2010 MVP award when he hit .359/.411/.633 with 32 home runs and 100 RBI.

For his efforts, Hamilton was paid handsomely, thus far earning more than $60 million. In December of 2012, he signed a free agent contract with the Angels worth $123 million – more than $90 million of which he is still owed through the 2017 season.

And that’s where the problems begin. Hamilton is due to make $25,400,000 in 2015, and $32,400,000 in each of 2016 and 2017. Back-loaded contracts are nothing new in sports, but Hamilton’s puts him as one of the game’s highest paid players from now through 2017 and his age-36 season.

Worse than that, Hamilton’s numbers immediately dropped once arriving in Anaheim, seeing batting averages of .285, .250 and .263 in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. His power numbers, too, have dropped along with virtually every other offensive metric – except for strikeouts. Considering his power, Hamilton was never as much of a strikeout problem in Texas, fanning at rates of 17.9% (2008), 21.6% (2009), 16.6% (2010), and 17.3% (2011). Once in Anaheim, his totals have jumped the past three seasons – 25.4% (2012), 24.8% (2013) and 28.3% (2014).

Strikeouts alone do not end a career (ask Adam Dunn, Preston Wilson, Mark Trumbo, or even Bobby Bonds), but the combination of Hamilton’s age, injury history, current injury issues, and downward trending numbers all signal that the end may be near. It’d be one thing if Hamilton had always been a strikeout issue (like Dunn, Wilson, Trumbo, and Bonds all were), but for a power hitter who didn’t strike out at such high rates as a younger player, Hamilton’s rapidly increasing strikeout percentage raises questions about his age, eye at the plate, reaction times, and ability to hit big league pitching relative to his salary and expectations.

No one is saying Hamilton will hit .150 and get released in 2015, of course, but it’s also highly doubtful that he will produce anything near his 2008, 2010 or 2012 seasons as he gets older and his body continues to break down. The silver lining for the Angels is that they’ve got a good crop of young outfielders – and, oh yeah, some guy named Trout who is decent– so Hamilton may not affect them as much as he would another team. But $90 million over the next three seasons is a tough check to write for a guy who is sure to regress even more as time goes on.

Hamilton has been through life as a first-round can’t-miss prospect, a drug-addicted failure, a completely resurrected MVP, a home run derby legend, an inadvertent party to a very unforeseen death at a game, and now a highly paid mid-30s former superstar trying to stay healthy enough to catch lightning in a bottle again.

Kudos to Hamilton for overcoming many, many adversities during his career, and this may be yet another adversity for him to vanquish. But seeing his strikeout and slash line trends of late, in addition to his injury history, tells me there’s not much left in the tank for Josh Hamilton.

At least we’ll always remember 2008:

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