A Close Look At The LA Kings Off-Season Moves
- Updated: July 15, 2015
(Photo via Twitter User @FoxSportsWest)
July 1 is one of my favorite days of the year. For fans of every NHL team around the league, it’s a day of hope and excitement, as they stayed glued to Twitter, hoping to see news – or even a rumor – that their team is about to make a splash signing or a shrewd trade to improve the squad.
Now here we are, July 15, and the pool of talent has already dried up significantly, as most of the top available players have been snapped up. The Kings, as has been their tradition, have been very quiet on the free agency front in these early days, but let’s examine the two moves they have made to this point.
Traded Martin Jones, Colin Miller and the #13 pick for Milan Lucic and $2.7m of retained salary
Let’s start with the good. Milan Lucic is a really good player. He should be highly motivated considering it’s a contract year for him and he was just traded, which is especially pertinent considering there were whispers that perhaps his motivation was sub par the past season or two.
So let’s look at what type of player he’s been in the last few years. What we see here to the right is that Lucic’s usage adjusted stats (adjusting for teammates, competition and zone starts) since 2012 are mostly first-line quality. His Corsi For, Corsi %, Assists/60 and Points/60 are all what you would expect to see from a first line player. His areas of relative weakness – Corsi events allowed per 60 and his goals per 60 – are still indicative of a top 6 winger. He is likely to be slotted in at left-wing next to Kopitar, moving Gaborik over to the right. I think it could also work to move Pearson up to that line, and put Lucic with Carter and Toffoli. Either way, he should be a fixture in the top 6.
Then there’s the matter of HOW he gets his points. Lucic is a strong, mean, SOB who is often thought of as a face-puncher type without much skill. But this would be selling him short. He puts up shots at a rate higher than league average from all over the ice, but especially from the “home plate” area between the faceoff dots. I was surprised to see that his shot rate and shooting percentage directly in front of the net (around the crease) isn’t higher than it is, as I’ve always thought of him as a great net presence that pounces on rebounds and gets tips. While he does provide that, when you look at the vast majority of his goals, they’re one-timers, breakaways or wristers from the slot. He’s not a guy who will create his own shot, but he is a guy who can finish when given the opportunity. This makes him a great fit with Kopitar, and a perfect fit on the finishing-challenged Kings.
Lucic’s performance has been trending the wrong way for a few years now, especially last year. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that he didn’t have his #1 center Krejci, but it’s a tad worrisome, especially considering studies have shown that players peak at around age 25. (Lucic is 27)
Dean Lombardi gave up a LOT in this trade. Probably too much. The rationale behind the trade is solid – you give up future assets for current ones when your championship window is now – but this seems like a mismanagement of assets and an overpay based on what other players have fetched in the past few days. (e.g. look at the Dougie Hamilton return) When you consider that Martin Jones was subsequently flipped for a 1st round pick to San Jose, this trade essentially amounts to two first round picks and arguably their #1 defensive prospect (who won the fastest skater and hardest shot competition in the AHL All-Star festivities) for one year of Lucic. Boston retained $2.7 million, which makes this deal more palatable for sure, but Lucic is going to command at a contract of at least $5m AAV next summer, which the Kings will almost certainly be unable to afford. Lombardi has been traditionally opposed to giving up valuable assets for guys who are rentals, but this trade and the loss of Sekera after giving up a 1st rounder for a month of his services has gone against his typical philosophy and may come back to bite them down the line. 2 of those assets were defensible – especially sending out Jones, who was a luxury the Kings couldn’t afford – but all 3 was probably too much.
This trade will help the Kings in 2015-2016, undoubtedly. How much it hurts them beyond that remains to be seen, but no 1st rounders for two straight years is going to hurt.
Signed Jhonas Enroth to back up Jonathan Quick
This a solid move. Jhonas Enroth has no serious aspirations of becoming a #1 goaltender, which Martin Jones did, so he knows his role is to spell quick for 15-20 games the whole year. He was signed for a very modest $1.25m one-year deal. Jones was just signed for 3 years at $3m AAV, and honestly, with how fickle goalie performances are from year-to-year, there’s a decent chance Enroth outperforms Jones next season, despite Jones’s talent advantage. Despite the low aspirations and the modest salary, Enroth is a very capable backup, and when he was on the Sabres, he even had some Buffalo bloggers wondering if Enroth should supplant Miller as the starter. His career save % is only .910, which is actually only a tick below Jonathan Quick’s .915 SV%. Quick, known for spectacular highs and embarrassing lows is not the most steady goalie, clocking in at a 56.5% quality start percentage for his career (though 2015 was better at 59.2%). Enroth’s career quality start percentage is only a smidge below at 55.7%. His Even Strength SV% for his career is a respectable 92.1%, (compared to Quick’s 92.4%) especially considering the sieve-like teams that have played in front of him (Buffalo and Dallas). He’s only 27 and only signed one year, so it’s the perfect stopgap until either JF Berube or Patrik Bartosak is ready to take the reins.
In the next installment, we’ll discuss the subtractions the Kings have made – namely, Justin Williams, Mike Richards, and, most likely, Jarret Stoll.
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